Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CGY

CGY

32-36-8

ANA

41-31-5

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-1VegasANA -155

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	21:40
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	1	1	1	4	2	2	18:51
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:11
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	15:42
M. FrostC · #16	2	0	4	5	2	1	2	15:32
M. GridinRW · #92	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	14:02
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	10:19
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:08
M. PospisilC · #76	0	1	0	0	7	1	0	12:46
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:25
R. StromeC · #22	1	0	0	2	2	1	0	14:18
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	11:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	24:17
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	15:16
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:20
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:55
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:49
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	2	1	3	3	2	25:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	39	3	36	.923	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	20:06
N. GaucherC · #41	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7:51
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	20:54
A. KillornLW · #17	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:14
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	19:35
M. McTavishC · #23	1	0	-3	3	1	0	0	14:50
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-3	4	1	1	0	15:04
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	1	3	1	0	2	21:22
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	19:10
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	10:08
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	23:52
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:33
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	23:22
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-3	1	1	1	0	20:46
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:16
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	-2	4	4	1	0	21:18
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	10:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	19	4	15	.789	58:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA wins series 3-1

Jan 26

ANA4@

CGY3

Mar 2

CGY2@

ANA3

Mar 27

ANA3@

CGY2

Apr 5

CGY5@

ANA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+13043%

ANA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 51 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat ANA 5-3. M. Frost led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	1	3	1	5
ANA	1	0	2	3

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · ANA won 1

CGY

ANA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·19:07
Morgan Frost Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·19:01
Morgan Frost Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·18:49
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·18:49
Morgan Frost Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (23)
·
CGY 5·ANA 3
3rd·18:46
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Leo Carlsson
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:38
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:38
Timeout - Home
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:38
Icing
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:34
Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot Wide Left
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:27
Blake Coleman shot blocked by John Carlson
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·18:05
Blake Coleman Snap Shot Wide Left
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:44
Leo Carlsson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Blake Coleman
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:37
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:37
Puck in Benches
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:31
Ryan Poehling hit Matvei Gridin
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by John Carlson
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·16:49
Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·16:23
Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·16:22
John Carlson Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·15:35
Mason McTavish Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·15:07
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·14:54
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·14:54
TV Timeout
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·14:54
Blake Coleman Hooking against Tyson Hinds
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·14:46
Tyson Hinds hit Matt Coronato
·
CGY 4·ANA 3
3rd·14:15
Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 4·ANA 3

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +130/ANA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–3.

CGY +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
63.5%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.5%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.5%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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