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FINAL+2CGY
CGY

CGY

32-36-8

53
ANA

ANA

41-31-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-1VegasANA -155

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–3.

CGY +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

CGY
Joel Farabee

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
CGY32-36-8ANA41-31-5
CGY

CGY

32-36-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

41-31-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

2

Season series

ANA wins series 3-1

Jan 26ANAANA4@CGYCGY3
Mar 2CGYCGY2@ANAANA3
Mar 27ANAANA3@CGYCGY2
Apr 5CGYCGY5@ANAANA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGYCGY+13043%
ANAANA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat ANA 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CGY1315
ANA1023

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · ANA won 1

1
1

1

3
0

2

1
2

3

CGY
ANA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  3. 3rd·19:07

    Morgan Frost Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  4. 3rd·19:01

    Morgan Frost Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  5. 3rd·18:49

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  6. 3rd·18:49

    Morgan Frost Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (23)

    ·

    CGY 5·ANA 3

  7. 3rd·18:46

    Matt Coronato shot blocked by Leo Carlsson

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  8. 3rd·18:38

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  9. 3rd·18:38

    Timeout - Home

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  10. 3rd·18:38

    Icing

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  11. 3rd·18:34

    Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot Wide Left

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  12. 3rd·18:27

    Blake Coleman shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  13. 3rd·18:05

    Blake Coleman Snap Shot Wide Left

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  14. 3rd·17:44

    Leo Carlsson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  15. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Blake Coleman

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  16. 3rd·17:37

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mason McTavish

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  17. 3rd·17:37

    Puck in Benches

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  18. 3rd·17:31

    Ryan Poehling hit Matvei Gridin

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  19. 3rd·17:04

    Giveaway by John Carlson

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  20. 3rd·16:49

    Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  21. 3rd·16:23

    Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  22. 3rd·16:22

    John Carlson Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  23. 3rd·15:39

    Giveaway by Alex Killorn

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  24. 3rd·15:35

    Mason McTavish Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  25. 3rd·15:07

    Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  26. 3rd·14:54

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  27. 3rd·14:54

    TV Timeout

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  28. 3rd·14:54

    Blake Coleman Hooking against Tyson Hinds

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  29. 3rd·14:46

    Tyson Hinds hit Matt Coronato

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

  30. 3rd·14:15

    Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 4·ANA 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

20

Shots

39

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

2

25

Faceoffs W

20

16

Blocks

13

20

Giveaways

14

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +130/ANA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR