NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIN

HOU

43-29

108110

MIN

45-28

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -1.5

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Houston Rockets, 110–108 in overtime. Decided by 2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Jaden McDaniels

F · #3

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	43	30	9-22	2-5	10-12	+5	3	8
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	48	16	7-15	2-6	—	-3	12	1
A. SengunC · #28	43	30	12-22	0-2	6-6	-2	6	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	45	11	4-8	—	3-3	-3	9	10
R. SheppardG · #15	28	10	3-13	2-10	2-2	+5	8	3
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	6	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
J. TateF · #8	8	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-5	1	0
T. EasonF · #17	21	3	1-7	1-2	—	+3	8	0
C. CapelaC · #30	10	0	0-1	—	—	0	4	0
A. HolidayG · #0	12	3	1-3	1-2	—	-2	2	1
J. OkogieG · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		108	38-93	9-29	23-25		54	26
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford

DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	42	24	11-27	0-4	2-4	+7	6	6
J. McDanielsF · #3	37	25	10-17	3-4	2-3	-6	2	0
R. GobertC · #27	28	14	7-13	—	—	0	14	1
M. ConleyG · #10	29	5	2-6	1-5	—	+2	5	6
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	36	17	6-15	5-12	—	+3	3	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	30	3	1-6	—	1-1	+4	5	3
N. ReidC · #11	31	14	5-13	2-5	2-2	-8	13	1
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	2	0	—	—	—	+9	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	30	8	3-11	2-7	—	-1	0	8
Team		110	45-108	13-37	7-10		49	27
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark

DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 17

MIN105@

HOU110

Mar 26

HOU108@

MIN110today

Apr 11

MIN136@

HOU132

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-13057%

MIN+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 33pp · 4th Quarter · 9.0

HOU

A. Sengun

Game leader · 43 min30-point game

30 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

MIN

J. McDaniels

Game leader · 37 min

25 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

MIN beat HOU 110-108. J. McDaniels paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the 4th quarter (33pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 38 REB · 25 AST

GS 79

Bench(6)

11 PTS · 16 REB · 1 AST

GS 7

MINstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU4th Quarter · 9.0 · 94-95

+25pp→ 70% WP

Rudy Gobert · away from play foul

MINOT · 55.5 · 108-108

+25pp→ 47% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)

MINOT · 8.8 · 108-110

+24pp→ 75% WP

Julius Randle · makes 9-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
HOU	19	24	25	27	13	108
MIN	23	21	26	25	15	110

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · MIN won 3

Durant 6

Gobert 6

Jr. 9

Randle 6

Sengun 12

McDaniels 6

Durant 9

Randle 9

Durant 6

DiVincenzo 5

HOU

MIN

Shooting comparison

HOU

MIN

41%

38-93

42%

45-108

31%

9-29

3PT

35%

13-37

92%

23-25

70%

7-10

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
HOU 108·MIN 110
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
HOU 108·MIN 110
+3pp
OT·1.1
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
HOU 108·MIN 110
OT·1.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 108·MIN 110
+2pp
OT·3.3
Kevin Durant misses free throw 2 of 2
HOU 108·MIN 110
+5pp
OT·3.3
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 108·MIN 110
OT·3.3
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 108·MIN 110
+5pp
OT·3.3
Kevin Durant misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 108·MIN 110
+21pp
OT·3.3
Julius Randle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 108·MIN 110
−12pp
OT·8.8
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
HOU 108·MIN 110
OT·8.8
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 108·MIN 110
OT·8.8
Julius Randle makes 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 108·MIN 110
+24pp
OT·29.9
Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound
HOU 108·MIN 108
+0.7pp
OT·33.7
Alperen Sengun misses 6-foot jumper
HOU 108·MIN 108
+4pp
OT·55.5
Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 108·MIN 108
+25pp
OT·1:01
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 108·MIN 105
OT·1:04
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Donte DiVincenzo steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 108·MIN 105
+8pp
OT·1:14
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 108·MIN 105
−6pp
OT·1:16
Amen Thompson misses 3-foot floating jump shot
HOU 108·MIN 105
+5pp
OT·1:34
Julius Randle makes driving layup (Bones Hyland assists)
·
HOU 108·MIN 105
+5pp
OT·1:41
Julius Randle defensive rebound
HOU 108·MIN 103
+1pp
OT·1:43
Alperen Sengun misses layup
HOU 108·MIN 103
+3pp
OT·2:02
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 108·MIN 103
OT·2:03
Donte DiVincenzo makes 2-foot layup (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
HOU 108·MIN 103
+2pp
OT·2:11
8 second turnover
HOU 108·MIN 101
+2pp
OT·2:20
Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 1
HOU 108·MIN 101
−2pp
OT·2:20
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Mike Conley
·
HOU 108·MIN 100
OT·2:20
Alperen Sengun shooting foul
HOU 108·MIN 100
+4pp
OT·2:20
Kyle Anderson makes tip shot
HOU 108·MIN 100
+1pp
OT·2:20
Kyle Anderson offensive rebound
HOU 108·MIN 98

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

38-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-108

FG %

9-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-37

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-10

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 223.5·HOU -130/MIN +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

MIN

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR