NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7DEN

DAL

23-50

135142

DEN

46-28

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDEN -10.5

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

41.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 3:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	16	7	1-2	—	5-7	-5	4	0
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	31	19	8-15	1-5	2-2	-3	15	1
N. MarshallF · #13	30	22	7-17	1-6	7-8	-7	4	3
C. FlaggF · #32	36	26	10-18	1-4	5-6	-6	8	7
M. ChristieG · #00	32	9	3-5	3-4	—	-6	1	2
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	18	11	4-8	1-2	2-2	-11	3	5
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	17	7	3-8	0-2	1-2	0	3	3
T. SmithF · #23	8	8	3-5	2-4	—	+3	1	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	11	8	3-6	2-2	—	-4	0	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	19	11	3-6	0-2	5-7	-1	2	6
R. NembhardG · #9	13	4	2-3	—	—	0	0	4
J. PoulakidasG · #1	9	3	1-4	1-4	—	+5	1	0
Team		135	48-97	12-35	27-34		42	31
DNP: A. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	29	12	5-8	2-4	—	+7	1	3
S. JonesF · #21	20	4	1-2	0-1	2-4	-8	2	0
N. JokicC · #15	38	23	8-19	1-5	6-6	+10	21	19
J. MurrayG · #27	41	53	19-28	9-14	6-6	+10	6	4
C. BraunG · #0	25	11	4-8	1-3	2-3	+9	3	4
Bench
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	27	4	1-3	1-2	1-2	+15	1	2
B. BrownG · #11	20	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-9	2	1
J. StrawtherG · #3	16	8	3-7	2-4	—	-2	5	0
P. WatsonG · #8	23	21	7-10	2-3	5-6	+3	4	3
Team		142	50-89	19-38	23-29		45	36
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Pickett, C. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

48-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-89

FG %

12-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-38

27-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 2

DAL131@

DEN121

Dec 24

DEN130@

DAL131

Jan 15

DEN118@

DAL109

Mar 26

DAL135@

DEN142today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

246.5

High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+47018%

DEN-65087%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -10.5↗SpreadBet DEN -10.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

246.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat DAL 142-135. J. Murray led the way with 53 points and 6 rebounds. DEN outscored the other side 34-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 73

Bench(7)

52 PTS · 10 REB · 18 AST

GS 42

DENstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 33 REB · 30 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 4:20 · 126-127

+11pp→ 30% WP

Max Christie · makes 23-foot three pointer (Brandon Williams assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 4:08 · 126-127

+10pp→ 79% WP

Naji Marshall · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 3:58 · 126-128

+12pp→ 42% WP

Nikola Jokic · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	33	26	41	35	135
DEN	34	34	43	31	142

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · DEN won 3

Washington 7

Murray 15

Marshall 8

Murray 21

Marshall 7

Jokic 14

Flagg 12

Murray 17

DAL

DEN

Shooting comparison

DAL

DEN

49%

48-97

56%

50-89

34%

12-35

3PT

50%

19-38

79%

27-34

79%

23-29

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 135·DEN 142
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 135·DEN 142
Q4·11.4
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DAL 135·DEN 142
Q4·12.6
Naji Marshall misses two point shot
DAL 135·DEN 142
+1pp
Q4·20.2
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
DAL 135·DEN 142
Q4·22.1
Bruce Brown misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 135·DEN 142
−1pp
Q4·22.1
Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 135·DEN 142
Q4·22.1
Dwight Powell enters the game for P.J. Washington
·
DAL 135·DEN 141
Q4·22.1
P.J. Washington personal take foul
DAL 135·DEN 141
+2pp
Q4·30.0
Nuggets Full timeout
DAL 135·DEN 141
Q4·31.2
Cooper Flagg makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
·
DAL 135·DEN 141
−0.7pp
Q4·38.7
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 133·DEN 141
−0.7pp
Q4·38.7
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 133·DEN 140
Q4·38.7
Cooper Flagg personal take foul
DAL 133·DEN 139
Q4·42.5
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
DAL 133·DEN 139
Q4·46.3
Cooper Flagg misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 133·DEN 139
+7pp
Q4·46.3
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 133·DEN 139
−0.9pp
Q4·46.3
Cameron Johnson loose ball foul
·
DAL 132·DEN 139
−5pp
Q4·46.3
Nikola Jokic bad pass turnover
DAL 132·DEN 139
−2pp
Q4·47.7
Cooper Flagg makes 3-foot two point shot
DAL 132·DEN 139
−0.5pp
Q4·51.1
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
DAL 130·DEN 139
Q4·52.8
Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DAL 130·DEN 139
−0.9pp
Q4·52.8
Peyton Watson misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 130·DEN 139
−0.7pp
Q4·52.8
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 130·DEN 139
+2pp
Q4·52.8
(00:52.8) [Mavericks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mavericks] charged with a timeout
DAL 130·DEN 138
−1pp
Q4·52.8
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 130·DEN 138
Q4·52.8
P.J. Washington shooting foul
DAL 130·DEN 138
+0.6pp
Q4·1:10
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 130·DEN 138
+0.9pp
Q4·1:10
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 129·DEN 138
Q4·1:10
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DAL 128·DEN 138

Betting line

DEN -10.5·O/U 246.5·DAL +470/DEN -650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Dallas Mavericks, 142–135.

DAL +10.5 cashed (DEN won by 7). Total cleared the 246.5 OVER by 30.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Daniel GaffordDAL
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
1.4± 1.1high
Naji MarshallDAL
1.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

DEN

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR