NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25SA

55-18

12398

MEM

24-48

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesSA wins series 3-1VegasSA -16.5

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 123–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -16.5 cashed (won by 25). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

GG Jackson

F · #45

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	26	13	4-10	3-8	2-2	+28	8	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	27	19	8-15	1-3	2-3	+34	15	3
D. VassellG · #24	26	19	7-10	4-6	1-2	+38	7	4
S. CastleG · #5	26	15	5-7	0-2	5-9	+34	3	9
D. HarperG · #2	23	10	4-8	2-5	—	+18	5	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	22	11	4-7	3-6	—	+7	2	2
K. OlynykF · #8	9	9	2-2	1-1	4-4	-8	1	3
L. Waters IIIF · #43	9	3	1-6	1-6	—	-8	1	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	15	7-16	1-6	—	+9	7	3
C. BryantF · #11	15	5	2-3	0-1	1-2	-11	1	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	9	0	0-1	—	—	-8	4	0
M. PlumleeC · #45	10	2	1-1	—	—	+5	4	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	15	2	1-3	0-2	—	-13	1	1
Team		123	46-89	16-46	15-22		59	36

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	25	17	6-10	3-7	2-3	-20	5	0
T. HendricksF · #22	28	2	1-7	0-4	—	-33	8	0
C. CowardF · #23	27	12	5-10	2-6	—	-11	1	4
G. JacksonF · #45	30	20	7-15	3-7	3-4	-18	7	2
J. SmallG · #10	30	8	2-4	1-3	3-4	-15	3	5
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	10	7	3-4	1-1	—	+8	1	0
T. BurtonF · #5	24	6	2-7	2-5	—	-13	2	1
D. JarreauG · #77	15	15	5-15	2-11	3-4	-6	2	1
C. SpencerG · #24	30	1	0-6	0-2	1-1	-12	2	7
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	22	10	3-8	2-4	2-4	-5	2	6
Team		98	34-86	16-50	14-20		33	26
DNP: J. Wells, T. Jerome

DNP: J. Wells, T. Jerome

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

SA wins series 3-1

Nov 19

MEM101@

SA111

Dec 3

MEM119@

SA126

Jan 7

SA105@

MEM106

Mar 26

SA123@

MEM98today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-180095%

MEM+10009%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -16.5↗SpreadBet SA -16.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSA ↔ MEM

V. Wembanyama

Game leader · 27 minDouble-double

19 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

MEM

G. Jackson

Game leader · 30 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

20 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

SA beat MEM 123-98. V. Wembanyama led with 19 PTS, 15 REB, 3 AST. SA outscored the other side 41-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 38 REB · 24 AST

GS 82

Bench(8)

47 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 35

MEMstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST

GS 25

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	38	19	41	25	123
MEM	19	25	20	34	98

Period scoring

SA won 2 · MEM won 2

Vassell 7

Jr. 8

Castle 6

Prosper 9

Wembanyama 11

Jarreau 8

Olynyk 9

Jackson 10

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

52%

46-89

40%

34-86

35%

16-46

3PT

32%

16-50

68%

15-22

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·10.8
shot clock turnover
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·32.6
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·34.8
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 1 of 1
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·34.8
Carter Bryant shooting foul
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·34.8
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes running layup
SA 123·MEM 98
Q4·38.5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound
SA 123·MEM 96
Q4·41.2
Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 123·MEM 96
Q4·1:01
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 123·MEM 96
Q4·1:01
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
SA 123·MEM 95
Q4·1:01
Javon Small misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 123·MEM 95
Q4·1:01
Jordan McLaughlin personal foul
SA 123·MEM 95
Q4·1:08
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 123·MEM 95
Q4·1:08
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 122·MEM 95
Q4·1:08
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Tyler Burton
·
SA 121·MEM 95
Q4·1:08
Tyler Burton shooting foul
SA 121·MEM 95
Q4·1:16
GG Jackson enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
SA 121·MEM 95
Q4·1:16
Tyler Burton personal foul
SA 121·MEM 95
Q4·1:29
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 121·MEM 95
Q4·1:29
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
SA 121·MEM 94
Q4·1:29
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes driving layup (Javon Small assists)
·
SA 121·MEM 94
Q4·1:43
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
SA 121·MEM 92
Q4·1:46
Jordan McLaughlin misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 121·MEM 92
Q4·1:57
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
SA 121·MEM 92
Q4·2:01
Javon Small misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 121·MEM 92
Q4·2:18
Carter Bryant makes dunk (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
SA 121·MEM 92
Q4·2:31
DeJon Jarreau makes 25-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)
·
SA 119·MEM 92
Q4·2:37
DeJon Jarreau enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
SA 119·MEM 89
Q4·2:37
Spurs Full timeout
SA 119·MEM 89

Team stats

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

46-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-86

FG %

16-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-50

15-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -16.5·O/U 234.5·SA -1800/MEM +1000

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.591
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.583
Dylan HarperSA · G
DEFL2.583
Julian ChampagnieSA · F
TS%60.972

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Ja MorantMEM
19.6± 8.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high

Assists

Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MEM

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR