NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7LAL

LAL

47-26

137130

IND

16-57

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -8.5

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 137–130.

IND +8.5 cashed (LAL won by 7). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

28.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	23	9-17	0-1	5-5	+24	9	9
J. LaRaviaF · #12	29	6	3-3	—	—	-1	5	1
J. HayesC · #11	36	21	9-11	—	3-6	+2	10	1
L. DoncicG · #77	38	43	15-30	4-11	9-10	+6	6	7
A. ReavesG · #15	38	25	7-16	2-7	9-9	+14	1	8
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	11	2	1-2	—	0-2	+4	4	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	12	5	2-2	1-1	—	-9	1	0
L. KennardG · #10	28	8	2-4	2-2	2-2	-9	2	2
B. JamesG · #9	13	4	2-4	0-1	—	+4	1	1
Team		137	50-89	9-23	28-34		39	30
DNP: D. Timme, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

DNP: D. Timme, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	30	20	7-15	1-2	5-7	-20	8	1
J. WalkerF · #5	30	15	5-9	4-8	1-2	-9	6	4
J. HuffC · #32	32	18	7-10	2-5	2-2	+6	6	1
A. NembhardG · #2	34	14	3-9	2-6	6-6	+4	2	19
A. NesmithG · #23	32	14	6-13	2-8	0-2	+11	3	1
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	20	15	7-10	1-3	—	+6	3	2
M. PotterC · #11	16	4	1-1	—	2-2	-12	2	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	14	17	8-10	—	1-1	-11	2	3
K. BrownG · #24	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-1	0	1
B. SheppardG · #26	18	13	4-6	4-5	1-1	+5	2	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	7	0	0-1	—	—	-14	0	1
Team		130	48-86	16-39	18-23		34	35
DNP: K. Jones

DNP: K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Mar 7

IND117@

LAL128

Mar 25

LAL137@

IND130today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-42581%

IND+33023%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -8.5↗SpreadBet LAL -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:58

LAL

L. Doncic

Game leader · 38 min40-point game

43 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST

IND

A. Nembhard

Game leader · 34 minDouble-double

14 PTS · 2 REB · 19 AST

How it ended

LAL beat IND 137-130. L. Doncic led the way with 43 points and 7 assists. LAL outscored the other side 45-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

118 PTS · 31 REB · 26 AST

GS 105

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

INDstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 26 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

49 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	45	30	30	32	137
IND	28	31	26	45	130

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · IND won 2

Doncic 21

Huff 6

James 11

Siakam 29

Doncic 11

Sheppard 7

Reaves 11

Toppin 11

LAL

IND

Shooting comparison

LAL

IND

56%

50-89

56%

48-86

39%

9-23

3PT

41%

16-39

82%

28-34

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 137·IND 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 137·IND 130
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LAL 137·IND 130
Q4·0.4
Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
LAL 137·IND 130
Q4·5.7
Jake LaRavia makes dunk (LeBron James assists)
· ·
LAL 137·IND 127
Q4·13.6
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
LAL 135·IND 127
Q4·16.3
Andrew Nembhard misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 135·IND 127
−0.5pp
Q4·20.5
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 135·IND 127
+0.5pp
Q4·20.5
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 134·IND 127
Q4·20.5
Ben Sheppard personal take foul
LAL 133·IND 127
−3pp
Q4·21.5
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
LAL 133·IND 127
Q4·21.5
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Jay Huff
·
LAL 133·IND 127
Q4·21.5
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 133·IND 127
Q4·21.5
Jarace Walker kicked ball violation
LAL 133·IND 127
+1pp
Q4·27.9
Jarace Walker makes 32-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
LAL 133·IND 127
+1pp
Q4·32.8
LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2
·
LAL 133·IND 124
Q4·32.8
LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LAL 132·IND 124
Q4·32.8
Jay Huff shooting foul
LAL 131·IND 124
−1pp
Q4·45.0
Jay Huff makes tip in dunk
LAL 131·IND 124
+0.6pp
Q4·45.0
Jay Huff offensive rebound
LAL 131·IND 122
Q4·46.8
Aaron Nesmith misses 23-foot running jump shot
LAL 131·IND 122
−0.5pp
Q4·52.8
Jay Huff defensive rebound
LAL 131·IND 122
Q4·53.9
LeBron James misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
·
LAL 131·IND 122
Q4·1:11
Andrew Nembhard makes 31-foot three pointer
LAL 131·IND 122
Q4·1:16
Austin Reaves makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
LAL 131·IND 119
Q4·1:38
Obi Toppin makes 2-foot driving dunk
LAL 129·IND 119
Q4·1:39
LeBron James lost ball turnover (Obi Toppin steals)
· ·
LAL 129·IND 117
Q4·1:42
Obi Toppin lost ball turnover (LeBron James steals)
· ·
LAL 129·IND 117
Q4·2:01
Obi Toppin defensive rebound
LAL 129·IND 117
Q4·2:04
Luka Doncic misses 19-foot fade away jump shot
LAL 129·IND 117

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

50-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-86

FG %

9-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-39

28-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LAL -8.5·O/U 241.5·LAL -425/IND +330

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 7 players in cohort

Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Luke KennardLAL · G
TS%68.998
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.896
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.994

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 165 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
LeBron JamesLAL
22.2± 5.8high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high

Steals

Marcus SmartLAL
2.1± 1.8high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

IND

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

114.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR