TOR
40-32
LAC
37-36
Recap · NBA
A Clippers held off Toronto Raptors, 119–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAC -3.5 cashed (won by 25). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
Scottie Barnes
F · #4
9
Pts
8
Reb
12
Ast
LAC · top performer
Bennedict Mathurin
G · #9
23
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 18 | 8-18 | 2-3 | — | -15 | 6 | 4 | |
| 32 | 12 | 5-19 | 0-7 | 2-5 | -23 | 6 | 4 | |
| 31 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | -7 | 8 | 12 | |
| 22 | 10 | 5-9 | — | 0-2 | -11 | 6 | 1 | |
| 31 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-5 | — | -9 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 13 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0-1 | -8 | 7 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | +7 | 5 | 0 | |
| 24 | 10 | 5-7 | — | — | -23 | 5 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | -3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -7 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -17 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 94 | 40-96 | 10-29 | 4-11 | 46 | 28 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 27 | 9-19 | 2-6 | 7-8 | +14 | 6 | 2 | |
| 22 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | +15 | 7 | 0 | |
| 25 | 14 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 1-1 | +10 | 5 | 0 | |
| 30 | 24 | 9-16 | 5-9 | 1-2 | +12 | 4 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | — | +3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 23 | 12 | 6-6 | — | — | +15 | 6 | 3 | |
| 24 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +20 | 5 | 4 | |
| 27 | 23 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 8-11 | +21 | 4 | 6 | |
| 7 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | +5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-82 | 16-35 | 19-24 | 49 | 24 | ||
| DNP: B. Bogdanovic | ||||||||
DNP: B. Bogdanovic
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
51
28
Ast
24
Season series
LAC win series 2-0
LAC121@TOR117TOR94@LAC119todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR+15040%LAC-18064%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 10:16
TORS. Barnes
FGame leader · 31 min
9 PTS · 8 REB · 12 AST
LACB. Mathurin
GGame leader · 27 min
23 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
LAC beat TOR 119-94. B. Mathurin led with 23 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. LAC outscored the other side 36-22 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST
GS 43
Bench(9)
37 PTS · 20 REB · 3 AST
GS 28
LACstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 27 REB · 8 AST
GS 53
Bench(7)
52 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST
GS 59
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBrook Lopez · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 22 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 94 |
| LAC | 36 | 23 | 32 | 28 | 119 |
Period scoring
TOR won 0 · LAC won 3
Q1
Poeltl 6
Lopez 11
Q2
Barrett 7
Leonard 11
Q3
Ingram 10
Garland 11
Q4
Murray-Boyles 6
Mathurin 11
Shooting comparison
42%
40-96
FG
51%
42-82
34%
10-29
3PT
46%
16-35
36%
4-11
FT
79%
19-24
Play-by-play · 463 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 94·LAC 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 94·LAC 119
- Q4·15.7
shot clock turnover
TOR 94·LAC 119
- Q4·39.8
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 2-foot running dunk (Jonathan Mogbo assists)
· ·
TOR 94·LAC 119
- Q4·47.3
Garrett Temple defensive rebound
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·47.3
Sean Pedulla misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·57.2
Cam Christie defensive rebound
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·58.9
Garrett Temple misses 25-foot running jump shot
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·1:02
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·1:03
Bennedict Mathurin misses 6-foot two point shot
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·1:16
Jonathan Mogbo makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
TOR 92·LAC 119
- Q4·1:16
Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:20
Gradey Dick misses 24-foot running jump shot
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:21
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:24
Sean Pedulla misses running pullup jump shot
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:30
Cam Christie defensive rebound
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:33
Gradey Dick misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:54
Isaiah Jackson makes 1-foot running dunk (Sean Pedulla assists)
·
TOR 90·LAC 119
- Q4·1:56
Sean Pedulla defensive rebound
TOR 90·LAC 117
- Q4·1:59
Gradey Dick misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 90·LAC 117
- Q4·2:14
Kobe Sanders makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)
·
TOR 90·LAC 117
- Q4·2:33
Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 90·LAC 114
- Q4·2:33
Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 89·LAC 114
- Q4·2:33
Kobe Sanders shooting foul
TOR 88·LAC 114
- Q4·2:52
Bennedict Mathurin makes running layup (Cam Christie assists)
·
TOR 88·LAC 114
- Q4·2:53
Cam Christie defensive rebound
TOR 88·LAC 112
- Q4·2:57
Isaiah Jackson blocks Gradey Dick 's 5-foot two point shot
·
TOR 88·LAC 112
- Q4·3:14
Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 88·LAC 112
- Q4·3:14
Cam Christie makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 88·LAC 111
- Q4·3:14
Jonathan Mogbo shooting foul
TOR 88·LAC 110
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
40-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-82
42
FG %
51
10-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-35
4-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-24
28
Assists
24
11
Turnovers
10
Betting line
LAC -3.5·O/U 226.5·TOR +150/LAC -180
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899- Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Brandon IngramTOR · FUSG%26.890
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR · FTS%63.789
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- RJ BarrettTOR6.1± 3.1high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
TOR
league avg
LAC
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
48.1%
FG%
47.0
48.5%
114.3
PPG
114.9
113.9
29.2
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.6