OKC
57-16
BOS
48-24
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 119–109.
BOS +2.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
33
Pts
2
Reb
8
Ast
BOS · top performer
Jaylen Brown
G · #7
31
Pts
8
Reb
8
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 3-6 | — | — | -1 | 5 | 2 | |
| 26 | 10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | -5 | 5 | 0 | |
| 37 | 33 | 10-12 | 3-4 | 10-12 | +1 | 2 | 8 | |
| 22 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-6 | — | -1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 3-4 | -5 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 21 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-8 | 2-2 | -12 | 4 | 2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 13 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | — | -17 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-3 | — | +3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 109 | 38-80 | 12-37 | 21-26 | 35 | 17 | ||
| DNP: B. Carlson, K. Williams, A. Wiggins | ||||||||
DNP: B. Carlson, K. Williams, A. Wiggins
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 19 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 6-6 | +2 | 12 | 7 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-8 | — | +4 | 5 | 0 | |
| 30 | 13 | 5-7 | — | 3-4 | +3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 33 | 12 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 4-4 | +6 | 2 | 6 | |
| 39 | 31 | 9-17 | 1-3 | 12-14 | +7 | 8 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | +9 | 2 | 0 | |
| 33 | 14 | 5-11 | 4-6 | — | +11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | — | +11 | 5 | 1 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 38-81 | 18-41 | 25-29 | 43 | 25 | ||
| DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., J. Walsh, M. Shulga | ||||||||
DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., J. Walsh, M. Shulga
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
47
17
Ast
25
Season series
Series tied 1-1
BOS102@OKC104OKC109@BOS119todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
222.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-13057%BOS+11048%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
222.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 9:49
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 37 min30-point game
33 PTS · 2 REB · 8 AST
BOSJ. Brown
GGame leader · 39 min30-point game
31 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
BOS beat OKC 119-109. J. Brown paced them with 31 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. OKC outscored the other side 31-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
BOS vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 60
Bench(6)
39 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 24
BOSstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
35 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPayton Pritchard · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · misses free throw 2 of 2
Jayson Tatum · makes free throw 1 of 3
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 31 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 109 |
| BOS | 20 | 29 | 39 | 31 | 119 |
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · BOS won 3
Q1
Gilgeous-Alexander 7
Garza 5
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 5
Tatum 8
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 14
Brown 14
Q4
Caruso 7
Brown 10
Shooting comparison
48%
38-80
FG
47%
38-81
32%
12-37
3PT
44%
18-41
81%
21-26
FT
86%
25-29
Play-by-play · 473 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·18.0
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·19.5
Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·25.6
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·28.4
Ajay Mitchell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·32.4
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 109·BOS 119
- Q4·32.4
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Jalen Williams
· ·
OKC 109·BOS 118
- Q4·32.4
Jared McCain enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 109·BOS 118
- Q4·32.4
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
OKC 109·BOS 118
- Q4·32.4
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 109·BOS 118
- Q4·32.4
Ajay Mitchell personal foul
OKC 109·BOS 117
+0.5pp
- Q4·41.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bad pass turnover (Jayson Tatum steals)
·
OKC 109·BOS 117
+1pp
- Q4·47.3
Jaylen Brown makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
OKC 109·BOS 117
+2pp
- Q4·1:02
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
OKC 109·BOS 115
+1pp
- Q4·1:04
Alex Caruso misses 23-foot three point jumper
OKC 109·BOS 115
+3pp
- Q4·1:12
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 109·BOS 115
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:13
Jayson Tatum misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 109·BOS 115
−2pp
- Q4·1:30
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
OKC 109·BOS 115
- Q4·1:30
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 109·BOS 115
- Q4·1:30
Alex Caruso enters the game for Isaiah Joe
·
OKC 109·BOS 115
- Q4·1:30
Neemias Queta enters the game for Sam Hauser
·
OKC 109·BOS 115
−4pp
- Q4·1:30
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 107·BOS 115
−3pp
- Q4·1:30
Derrick White shooting foul
OKC 106·BOS 115
−2pp
- Q4·1:40
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Sam Hauser (Ajay Mitchell gains possession)
· ·
OKC 106·BOS 115
+2pp
- Q4·1:42
Derrick White lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)
·
OKC 106·BOS 115
+2pp
- Q4·2:01
Celtics defensive team rebound
OKC 106·BOS 115
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:04
Isaiah Joe misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 106·BOS 115
+3pp
- Q4·2:17
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 106·BOS 115
- Q4·2:17
Celtics offensive team rebound
OKC 106·BOS 114
−2pp
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
38-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-81
48
FG %
47
12-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
18-41
21-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-29
17
Assists
25
7
Turnovers
13
Betting line
OKC -2.5·O/U 222.5·OKC -130/BOS +110
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Jaylen BrownBOS · GUSG%35.699+
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799
Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · CCONT9.197
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Jaylen BrownBOS26.6± 6.3high
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Payton PritchardBOS5.4± 2.2high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
BOS
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
46.5%
118.5
PPG
114.9
114.2
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
24.6
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.5