MIA
39-34
CLE
45-28
Recap · NBA
iami Heat went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 120–103.
MIA +2.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 243.5 by 20.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIA · top performer
Kel'el Ware
C · #7
13
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
28
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 12 | 5-9 | 2-5 | — | +2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 33 | 17 | 6-19 | 1-9 | 4-5 | -1 | 10 | 7 | |
| 34 | 19 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | -6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 30 | 18 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 2-2 | +21 | 2 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 14 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-1 | +6 | 2 | 5 | |
| 20 | 13 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-1 | +32 | 11 | 4 | |
| 34 | 14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 7-7 | +14 | 5 | 2 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +12 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 120 | 42-81 | 18-45 | 18-22 | 40 | 31 | ||
| DNP: S. Fontecchio, M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, D. Smith | ||||||||
DNP: S. Fontecchio, M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, D. Smith
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 8 | 3-8 | — | 2-5 | -5 | 5 | 4 | |
| 43 | 18 | 4-10 | 3-9 | 7-7 | -6 | 9 | 7 | |
| 33 | 28 | 12-22 | 4-9 | — | -21 | 6 | 4 | |
| 29 | 18 | 6-13 | 4-10 | 2-2 | -22 | 2 | 4 | |
| 37 | 17 | 5-12 | 1-7 | 6-6 | -13 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 6 | 2-3 | — | 2-2 | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-1 | — | -13 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -5 | 6 | 6 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 103 | 35-81 | 12-37 | 21-24 | 40 | 26 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., D. Wade, T. Enaruna, R. Minix | ||||||||
DNP: L. Nance Jr., D. Wade, T. Enaruna, R. Minix
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
43
31
Ast
26
Season series
MIA leads series 2-1
CLE138@MIA140CLE130@MIA116MIA120@CLE103todayMIA128@CLE149Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
243.5
High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA+12445%CLE-14860%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
243.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 4:57
MIAK. Ware
CGame leader · 20 minDouble-double
13 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
CLED. Mitchell
GGame leader · 33 min
28 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIA beat CLE 120-103. K. Ware led with 13 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST. CLE outscored the other side 37-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST
GS 68
Bench(4)
43 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 41
CLEstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBam Adebayo · steps out of bounds turnover
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)
Kel'el Ware · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 28 | 35 | 20 | 37 | 120 |
| CLE | 19 | 27 | 37 | 20 | 103 |
Period scoring
MIA won 3 · CLE won 1
Q1
Herro 9
Harden 7
Q2
Wiggins 7
Merrill 13
Q3
Adebayo 12
Wiggins 19
Q4
Larsson 9
Harden 6
Shooting comparison
52%
42-81
FG
43%
35-81
40%
18-45
3PT
32%
12-37
82%
18-22
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 442 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·12.0
shot clock turnover
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·34.9
Sam Merrill lost ball turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)
·
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·39.9
James Harden offensive rebound
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·42.5
Keon Ellis misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·54.9
Norman Powell makes 1-foot running dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)
· ·
MIA 120·CLE 103
- Q4·56.1
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
·
MIA 118·CLE 103
- Q4·58.4
Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 118·CLE 103
- Q4·1:10
Davion Mitchell makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
MIA 118·CLE 103
- Q4·1:30
Heat defensive team rebound
MIA 116·CLE 103
- Q4·1:30
Evan Mobley misses 6-foot two point shot
MIA 116·CLE 103
- Q4·1:45
Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Bam Adebayo assists)
·
MIA 116·CLE 103
- Q4·2:08
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 114·CLE 103
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:08
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 114·CLE 102
- Q4·2:08
Davion Mitchell shooting foul
·
MIA 114·CLE 101
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:14
shot clock turnover
MIA 114·CLE 101
- Q4·2:44
James Harden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)
·
MIA 114·CLE 101
- Q4·2:57
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 114·CLE 98
- Q4·2:57
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 113·CLE 98
- Q4·2:57
Sam Merrill personal foul
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·2:57
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:00
Bam Adebayo misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:22
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:24
James Harden misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:37
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:39
Kel'el Ware misses free throw 1 of 1
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:39
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
· ·
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:39
Donovan Mitchell shooting foul
·
MIA 112·CLE 98
- Q4·3:39
Kel'el Ware makes running layup (Norman Powell assists)
·
MIA 112·CLE 98
−0.5pp
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
42-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-81
52
FG %
43
18-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-37
18-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
31
Assists
26
12
Turnovers
14
Betting line
CLE -2.5·O/U 243.5·MIA +124/CLE -148
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.692
Sam MerrillCLE · GTS%64.491
Thomas BryantCLE · CTS%62.584
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Tyler HerroMIA4.6± 1.9high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
CLE
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.6%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
120.9
PPG
114.9
117.4
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
27.1
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8