NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31POR

MIL

29-43

99130

POR

37-37

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-0VegasPOR -15.5

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Donovan Clingan

C · #23

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 8:59

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. NanceF · #35	31	6	2-6	1-5	1-2	-19	4	2
O. DiengF · #21	33	16	7-17	2-6	—	-28	4	4
J. SimsC · #00	29	12	5-5	—	2-4	-21	6	2
A. GreenG · #20	34	5	2-8	1-5	—	-30	4	5
R. RollinsG · #13	31	36	13-26	6-12	4-4	-6	4	4
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	29	13	4-11	3-8	2-2	-1	6	2
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	8	1	0-1	—	1-2	-11	3	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	19	0	0-7	0-4	—	-21	0	0
C. RyanG · #30	4	2	1-3	0-2	—	-8	0	0
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	21	8	2-5	1-3	3-6	-10	3	1
Team		99	36-89	14-45	13-20		34	22
DNP: M. Turner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	24	18	7-16	4-10	—	+20	2	0
T. CamaraF · #33	24	10	3-6	2-4	2-2	+1	3	1
D. AvdijaF · #8	25	18	4-8	1-5	9-11	+6	4	7
D. ClinganC · #23	25	14	6-8	1-2	1-2	+26	15	3
J. HolidayG · #5	26	13	4-7	4-5	1-1	+28	5	8
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	21	5	2-2	1-1	—	+22	3	2
R. Williams IIIC · #35	13	6	2-4	—	2-4	+4	6	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	23	14	5-7	3-5	1-1	+23	8	0
C. LoveG · #2	8	0	0-3	0-1	—	-1	0	1
S. HendersonG · #00	24	23	6-13	3-7	8-8	+18	3	4
B. WesleyG · #1	9	7	2-5	0-1	3-4	+1	1	1
S. CissokoG · #91	15	2	1-1	—	—	+7	4	3
Team		130	42-80	19-41	27-33		54	30
DNP: D. Lillard, V. Krejci, S. Sharpe

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

POR

Home

36-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-80

FG %

14-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-41

13-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-0

Nov 25

POR115@

MIL103

Mar 26

MIL99@

POR130today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+67513%

POR-105091%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -15.5↗SpreadBet POR -15.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat MIL 130-99. D. Clingan led with 14 PTS, 15 REB, 3 AST. POR outscored the other side 42-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

PORstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST

GS 70

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST

GS 55

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	27	22	32	18	99
POR	42	29	33	26	130

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · POR won 4

Rollins 7

Holiday 10

Dieng 4

Grant 8

Rollins 17

Clingan 7

Rollins 8

Henderson 10

MIL

POR

Shooting comparison

MIL

POR

40%

36-89

53%

42-80

31%

14-45

3PT

46%

19-41

65%

13-20

82%

27-33

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·8.9
shot clock turnover
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·31.3
Matisse Thybulle defensive rebound
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·35.1
Cormac Ryan misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·45.0
Andre Jackson Jr. vs. Caleb Love (Pete Nance gains possession)
· ·
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·45.0
Blake Wesley makes technical free throw
MIL 99·POR 130
Q4·45.0
Gary Trent Jr. technical foul
MIL 99·POR 129
Q4·54.4
Blake Wesley makes driving layup
MIL 99·POR 129
Q4·1:11
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:14
Andre Jackson Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:14
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:14
Andre Jackson Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:14
Sidy Cissoko shooting foul
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:25
Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 99·POR 127
Q4·1:25
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:25
Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:25
Pete Nance shooting foul
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:27
Blake Wesley defensive rebound
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:28
Sidy Cissoko blocks Gary Trent Jr. 's 3-foot running layup
·
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:36
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·1:38
Cormac Ryan blocks Caleb Love's turnaround jump shot
·
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·2:00
Cormac Ryan makes driving layup
MIL 99·POR 126
Q4·2:07
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:09
Blake Wesley misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:33
shot clock turnover
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:33
Pete Nance offensive rebound
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:37
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:58
Matisse Thybulle makes free throw 1 of 1
MIL 97·POR 126
Q4·2:58
Thanasis Antetokounmpo shooting foul
MIL 97·POR 125

Betting line

POR -15.5·O/U 226.5·MIL +675/POR -1050

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Milwaukee Bucks, 130–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

POR -15.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

POR

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.6

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR