BKN
17-56
GS
35-38
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors held off Brooklyn Nets, 109–106. Decided by 3.
BKN +12.5 cashed (GS won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BKN · top performer
Ziaire Williams
F · #1
19
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Gui Santos
F · #15
31
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 19 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 6-7 | +6 | 1 | 2 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-6 | — | 2-2 | +1 | 4 | 2 | |
| 23 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | — | +4 | 5 | 1 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-7 | — | -8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 32 | 14 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 2-4 | -9 | 4 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 15 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 6-8 | -9 | 3 | 2 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | — | -5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 19 | 11 | 5-8 | 1-3 | — | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 18 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-4 | — | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | +8 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 106 | 39-81 | 12-33 | 16-21 | 27 | 24 | ||
| DNP: O. Agbaji | ||||||||
DNP: O. Agbaji
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-4 | +11 | 5 | 3 | |
| 35 | 31 | 11-16 | 4-6 | 5-8 | -6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 27 | 17 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 9-10 | +11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 28 | 14 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | +16 | 9 | 3 | |
| 35 | 22 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 8-8 | +19 | 6 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 1 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 10 | 5-5 | — | — | -2 | 7 | 2 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | -8 | 2 | 2 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | — | -9 | 3 | 3 | |
| 20 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -13 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 109 | 36-68 | 9-27 | 28-36 | 43 | 21 | ||
| DNP: Q. Post, M. Moody | ||||||||
DNP: Q. Post, M. Moody
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
53
24
Ast
21
Season series
GS wins series 2-0
GS120@BKN107BKN106@GS109todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
217.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BKN+45518%GS-62586%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
217.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 30pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:48
BKNZ. Williams
FGame leader · 24 min
19 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
GSG. Santos
FGame leader · 35 min30-point game
31 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat BKN 109-106. G. Santos paced them with 31 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 32-20 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs BKN
Starters vs bench
production by unitBKNstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST
GS 44
Bench(6)
51 PTS · 11 REB · 12 AST
GS 35
GSstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST
GS 66
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWill Richard · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Chaney Johnson · misses driving floating jump shot
Jalen Wilson · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 30 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 106 |
| GS | 25 | 25 | 27 | 32 | 109 |
Period scoring
BKN won 3 · GS won 1
Q1
Williams 9
Podziemski 6
Q2
Saraf 6
Liddell 15
Q3
Williams 8
Santos 19
Q4
Saraf 7
Podziemski 7
Shooting comparison
48%
39-81
FG
53%
36-68
36%
12-33
3PT
33%
9-27
76%
16-21
FT
78%
28-36
Play-by-play · 494 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 106·GS 109
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 106·GS 109
+2pp
- Q4·2.7
Josh Minott bad pass turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 106·GS 109
+9pp
- Q4·6.9
Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 106·GS 109
−4pp
- Q4·6.9
Draymond Green makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 106·GS 108
+1pp
- Q4·6.9
Josh Minott personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 107
+11pp
- Q4·6.9
Draymond Green defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 107
+9pp
- Q4·8.7
Ben Saraf misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 107
+16pp
- Q4·16.9
Nets Full timeout
BKN 106·GS 107
−0.7pp
- Q4·24.5
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 106·GS 107
- Q4·24.5
Gary Payton II enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis
·
BKN 106·GS 106
- Q4·24.5
Warriors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 106
−10pp
- Q4·24.5
De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 106
−9pp
- Q4·24.5
Jalen Wilson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 106
+18pp
- Q4·46.0
Warriors Full timeout
BKN 106·GS 106
- Q4·46.0
Ben Saraf makes 1-foot driving dunkBIG MOMENT
BKN 106·GS 106
−10pp
- Q4·55.0
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 106
−9pp
- Q4·55.0
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 104·GS 105
+2pp
- Q4·55.0
Josh Minott enters the game for Chaney Johnson
·
BKN 104·GS 104
- Q4·55.0
Chaney Johnson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 104
+14pp
- Q4·1:16
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
BKN 104·GS 104
+2pp
- Q4·1:19
Chaney Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 104
+6pp
- Q4·1:36
Kristaps Porzingis makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 104
+9pp
- Q4·1:36
Kristaps Porzingis offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 102
+8pp
- Q4·1:36
Gui Santos misses 3-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 102
−9pp
- Q4·2:00
Ben Saraf makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·GS 102
−9pp
- Q4·2:26
Gui Santos makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·GS 102
+8pp
- Q4·2:38
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
BKN 102·GS 100
+2pp
- Q4·2:40
Chaney Johnson misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·GS 100
+18pp
- Q4·2:44
Draymond Green personal foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·GS 100
−14pp
Team stats
BKN
Away
Stat
GS
Home
39-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-68
48
FG %
53
12-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
28-36
24
Assists
21
17
Turnovers
26
Betting line
GS -12.5·O/U 217.5·BKN +455/GS -625
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · BKN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs BKN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN22.7± 6.2high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN6.9± 5.2high
- Day'Ron SharpeBKN6.5± 2.5high
- Nic ClaxtonBKN6.4± 2.2high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
- Nolan TraoreBKN4.2± 2.3high
Blocks
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Josh MinottBKN0.9± 1.2high
- Nic ClaxtonBKN0.9± 0.7high
Steals
- Ziaire WilliamsBKN1.7± 1.6high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BKN
league avg
GS
52.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
44.3%
FG%
47.0
▶46.2%
105.9
PPG
114.9
▶114.5
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1