NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

41-32

130129

DET

52-20

NBAWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -2.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 130–129 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

ATL +2.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	24	11	4-6	3-5	—	-5	1	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	42	27	9-18	2-6	7-8	+2	8	12
C. McCollumG · #3	35	27	10-21	5-12	2-2	-16	1	5
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	40	21	9-18	3-10	—	0	4	3
D. DanielsG · #5	43	16	8-14	0-1	—	-11	13	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	12	5	1-5	1-4	2-4	+5	4	2
J. KumingaF · #0	20	8	3-9	1-4	1-3	+3	5	1
M. GueyeF · #18	1	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	+9	3	0
J. LandaleC · #31	28	5	2-5	1-4	—	+1	10	2
G. VincentG · #4	11	8	3-6	2-4	—	+12	1	0
Team		130	50-105	18-52	12-17		50	31
DNP: B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

DNP: B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	35	22	9-17	2-5	2-2	+1	3	3
D. RobinsonF · #55	32	17	6-12	5-10	—	+6	7	4
J. DurenC · #0	42	26	9-15	—	8-9	+14	14	3
A. ThompsonG · #9	37	18	9-11	—	—	+10	4	5
D. JenkinsG · #24	45	19	6-13	1-6	6-8	+1	3	10
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	11	6	3-7	0-1	—	-15	0	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-6	2	1
J. GreenG · #31	15	7	3-8	1-5	—	+4	3	2
C. LeVertG · #8	15	4	2-7	0-3	—	-15	5	2
K. HuerterG · #27	20	8	4-9	0-2	—	-5	2	2
Team		129	52-102	9-33	16-19		43	33
DNP: T. Smith, B. Klintman, I. Jones, C. Lanier

DNP: T. Smith, B. Klintman, I. Jones, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Nov 19

DET120@

ATL112

Dec 2

ATL98@

DET99

Dec 13

ATL115@

DET142

Mar 25

ATL130@

DET129today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+12445%

DET-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -2.5↗SpreadBet DET -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 60pp · OT · 2.9

ATL

J. Johnson

Game leader · 42 minDouble-double

27 PTS · 8 REB · 12 AST

DET

J. Duren

Game leader · 42 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

ATL beat DET 130-129. J. Johnson paced them with 27 PTS, 8 REB, 12 AST. DET outscored the other side 40-25 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 27 REB · 26 AST

GS 79

Bench(6)

28 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST

GS 20

DETstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 31 REB · 25 AST

GS 91

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 2:15 · 116-114

+18pp→ 63% WP

CJ McCollum · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)

ATLOT · 36.1 · 130-129

+17pp→ 85% WP

Ausar Thompson · personal foul

ATLOT · 2.9 · 130-129

+60pp→ 91% WP

Tobias Harris · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
ATL	37	36	25	23	9	130
DET	29	26	40	26	8	129

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · DET won 2

Alexander-Walker 14

Duren 8

Johnson 15

Robinson 6

Vincent 8

Duren 11

McCollum 11

LeVert 4

Johnson 4

Robinson 14

ATL

DET

Shooting comparison

ATL

DET

48%

50-105

51%

52-102

35%

18-52

3PT

27%

9-33

71%

12-17

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
ATL 130·DET 129
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
ATL 130·DET 129
OT·0.1
Pistons offensive team rebound
ATL 130·DET 129
−2pp
OT·0.7
Jalen Duren misses 9-foot jumper
ATL 130·DET 129
−3pp
OT·1.1
Jalen Duren offensive rebound
ATL 130·DET 129
−5pp
OT·2.9
Tobias Harris misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
−60pp
OT·4.9
Dyson Daniels personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
+46pp
OT·8.2
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
ATL 130·DET 129
OT·8.2
Pistons Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
−8pp
OT·13.4
Javonte Green defensive rebound
ATL 130·DET 129
+2pp
OT·15.6
CJ McCollum misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
+15pp
OT·36.1
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
ATL 130·DET 129
OT·36.1
Ausar Thompson personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
−17pp
OT·41.2
Daniss Jenkins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 130·DET 129
+9pp
OT·49.1
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
ATL 130·DET 127
+2pp
OT·52.0
Jalen Johnson misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 130·DET 127
+5pp
OT·1:11
Duncan Robinson makes tip shot
ATL 130·DET 127
+4pp
OT·1:13
Duncan Robinson offensive rebound
ATL 130·DET 125
+4pp
OT·1:14
Ausar Thompson misses tip shot
ATL 130·DET 125
−4pp
OT·1:14
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
ATL 130·DET 125
+4pp
OT·1:15
Duncan Robinson misses driving layup
ATL 130·DET 125
−4pp
OT·1:25
Pistons Full timeout
ATL 130·DET 125
OT·1:25
Dyson Daniels makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 130·DET 125
−6pp
OT·1:42
Ausar Thompson makes alley oop layup (Duncan Robinson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 128·DET 125
+5pp
OT·1:43
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
ATL 128·DET 123
+1pp
OT·1:45
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 28-foot three point jumper
ATL 128·DET 123
+3pp
OT·2:02
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 128·DET 123
−1pp
OT·2:05
Tobias Harris misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 128·DET 123
−4pp
OT·2:12
Daniss Jenkins offensive rebound
ATL 128·DET 123
+3pp
OT·2:14
Daniss Jenkins misses 5-foot two point shot
ATL 128·DET 123
−4pp

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

50-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-102

FG %

18-52

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DET -2.5·O/U 229.5·ATL +124/DET -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.395
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.595

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

DET

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR