Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 8, 2026

FINAL+5BOS

BOS

42-48

CHW

47-44

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

23,973 attended

Line movement

50 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.6%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.6± 2.7high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.0± 1.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

CHW

.709

OPS

.719

▶

.722

.315

OBP

.318

.316

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.73

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.01

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · CHW 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	5
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Team pages

Boston Red SoxChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.293	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.286	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.260	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
W. Contreras1B	.285	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.259	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.225	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.199	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
C. NarvaezC	.192	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. ChengSS	.273	3	1	2	2	0	1	1
A. MonasterioSS	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GonzalezDH	.308	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	5	10	4	0	3	11

Player

.293

.286

.260

.285

.259

.225

.199

.192

.273

.223

.308

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BennettSP	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	81
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
J. MoranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	4	0	0	1	6	103

Player

J. BennettSP

7.0

G. WeissertRP

1.0

J. MoranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

103

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Vargas3B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Meidroth2B	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. AntonacciLF	.293	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.225	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PerezCF	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TeelC	.191	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. AcunaSS	.229	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.290	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	4	0	0	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	4.0	6	5	5	2	2	84
C. MurphyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	26
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	24
T. RichardsRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	4	47
Team	9.0	10	5	5	3	11	194

Team

BOS

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.