Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 17, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

56-40

BOS

48-48

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,255 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BOS no-vig %

50.3%

open 50.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.85

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-111

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

50.3%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.7pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

+168DraftKings

edge +12.7pp · implied 35.1%

BOS

no live price

Book	TB	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+168★	-224	+12.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
2.1± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.712

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

3.71

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.23

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 3 · BOS 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
BOS	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.314	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.291	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.281	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.255	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.201	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. DeLucaRF	.254	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.216	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	1	2	8

Player

.314

.291

.281

.255

.201

.254

.249

.228

.216

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. EnglertRP	5.0	8	5	5	1	4	88
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
C. SulserRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	8	5	5	3	6	131

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.268	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.279	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.263	4	2	2	3	2	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.285	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
M. YoshidaDH	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.239	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.283	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. ChengSS	.303	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. JonesDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	8	5	3	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RiveraSP	2.1	3	3	3	2	3	64
G. WeissertRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	7
J. MoranRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	8	132

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.