Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

BAL

49-52

BOS

51-48

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

37,659 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

56.1%

open 56.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
67.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.25

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

56.1%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Sonny GrayBOS
5.4± 2.8high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

BOS

.711

OPS

.719

.712

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.35

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.23

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BAL 5 · BOS 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	5
BOS	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.251	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. HendersonSS	.224	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
T. O'NeillRF	.205	5	1	2	2	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.196	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. TaverasCF	.240	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. Jackson2B	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.375	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
S. HuffC	.138	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. BeaversRF	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.209	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	5	11	5	1	2	15

Player

.251

.246

.224

.205

.196

.240

.252

C. Encarnacion-Strand3B

.375

.138

.243

.205

.209

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	6.0	6	4	1	0	6	77
Y. CanoRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	10
T. WellsRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	21
Team	8.0	9	6	3	0	9	108

Player

S. BazSP

6.0

Y. CanoRP

0.2

T. WellsRP

1.1

Team

8.0

108

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.281	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.264	4	2	1	1	0	0	1
W. Contreras1B	.289	4	1	3	2	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.236	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. DuranLF	.191	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. WongC	.277	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. ChengSS	.278	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
Team		33	6	9	6	1	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	5.2	8	4	4	1	9	88
T. GuerreroRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	3	19
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
Team	9.0	11	5	5	2	15	140

Team

BAL

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BOS vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.