Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

56-41

BOS

49-48

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

33,077 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BOS no-vig %

52.1%

open 52.2% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.1%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

BOS

no live price

Book	TB	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+100	-120	+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
2.1± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.712

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

3.71

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.23

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 6 · BOS 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	2	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	6
BOS	0	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.315	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
J. DeLucaRF	.258	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.257	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.279	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.215	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. FortesC	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
R. Palacios2B	.239	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. MullinsCF	.201	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.290	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.216	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	10	4	2	3	7

Player

.315

.258

.281

.257

.279

.244

.215

.254

.239

.201

.290

.216

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SeymourSP	3.0	2	3	3	2	4	61
K. KellyRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	29
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	15
C. SulserRP	0.2	1	2	0	0	1	15
G. CleavingerRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	18
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	6	7	5	3	8	150

Player

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RafaelaCF	.279	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.266	3	2	2	3	2	1	0
W. Contreras1B	.283	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GonzalezDH	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MonasterioSS	.238	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. JonesDH	.500	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DuranLF	.191	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.267	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. WongC	.283	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	7	6	7	3	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SandovalSP	5.0	9	5	4	1	5	76
R. WatsonRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	23
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	20
Team	9.0	10	6	5	3	7	127

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.