Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

43-48

CHW

47-45

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

19,148 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHW no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

CHW

.712

OPS

.719

▶

.724

.316

OBP

.318

.316

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.78

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.00

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 2 · CHW 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
CHW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Team pages

Boston Red SoxChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.283	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RafaelaCF	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GonzalezDH	.310	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. Durbin3B	.225	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. EatonOF	.138	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Harris3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.295	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.198	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		28	2	4	2	1	4	6

Player

.283

.283

.260

.310

.225

.217

.138

.000

.295

.198

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SandovalSP	4.1	5	1	1	1	5	65
T. GuerreroRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	19
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	9	118

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

118

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.266	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
R. GrichukDH	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.222	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. PerezCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. AntonacciLF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. AcunaSS	.233	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.137	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.241	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.292	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TeelC	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	1	7	1	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	5.1	4	2	2	2	4	92
J. HicksRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	15
G. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
T. DavisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
Team	9.0	4	2	2	4	6	135

Team

BOS

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.