New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

NYY

48-35

BOS

36-46

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,573 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.5%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

BOS

★ best

-104DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 47.9%

Book	NYY	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-125	-104★	+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.1± 3.3low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.9± 1.1high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.6± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.7± 1.6high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.0± 1.3high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.6high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.5± 1.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.723

OPS

◀

.720

.709

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.53

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

NYY 4 · BOS 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	4
BOS	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. BellingerLF	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. JonesCF	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Rosario3B	.252	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
O. Cabrera3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.157	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.252	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.252	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. BednarRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.289	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
F. CruzRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. SchuemannLF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	3	3	0	2	12

Player

.223

.272

.214

.262

.215

.252

.000

.157

.252

.252

.000

.289

.000

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RodonSP	5.0	1	2	0	4	6	96
P. BlackburnRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
D. BednarRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	33
F. CruzRP	0.1	3	3	2	0	0	10
Team	9.1	6	5	2	4	8	153

Player

5.0

2.0

2.0

0.1

Team

9.1

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EatonOF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.267	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
W. Contreras1B	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. GonzalezDH	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.230	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
A. Seigler2B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. WongC	.280	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. ChengSS	.111	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. DuranLF	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.224	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	6	5	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	7.1	1	0	0	1	9	97
T. GuerreroRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	2	1	1	2	23
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	2	0	0	1	16
Team	10.0	3	4	1	2	12	145

Team

NYY

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.