Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at NYM?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+4BOS

BOS

45-48

NYM

40-56

Citi Field · Queens, New York

38,371 attended

Line movement

71 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

35.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
41.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.9%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.6%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at NYM?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NYM vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.7high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Adley RutschmanBOS
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

NYM

.712

OPS

◀

.720

.683

.316

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 4 · NYM 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Boston Red SoxNew York Mets

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.271	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.282	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Durbin3B	.230	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
M. YoshidaDH	.266	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.226	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. DuranLF	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.188	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. ChengSS	.296	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. GonzalezDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	6	4	2	5	9

Player

.271

.282

.264

.230

.266

.226

.193

.188

.296

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RiveraSP	3.2	1	0	0	2	3	64
G. WeissertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
J. MoranRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25
J. SlatenRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	17
D. CoulombeRP	2.0	0	0	0	3	0	37
Team	9.0	3	0	0	7	8	155

Player

3.2

1.0

1.2

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

155

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. LindorSS	.208	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BengeRF	.266	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. PolancoDH	.181	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.194	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. AlvarezC	.254	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
B. Baty3B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
Z. ShortSS	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.256	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TaylorLF	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	0	3	0	0	7	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	4.1	3	2	2	5	6	92
H. BrazobanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12
A.J. MinterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. MyersRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	0	23
Team	9.0	6	4	4	5	9	150

Team

BOS

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYM vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.