Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at LAA?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

BOS

40-48

LAA

36-55

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

35,992 attended

Line movement

46 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

40.7%

open 41.7% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
39.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.8%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at LAA?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

LAA vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.6± 1.6high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 0.9high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

LAA

.712

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.316

OBP

.318

.313

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.49

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.37

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · LAA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	7
LAA	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.308	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.283	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.264	4	1	0	1	0	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.284	4	1	1	3	1	1	1
M. YoshidaDH	.261	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.223	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. DuranLF	.197	3	1	2	2	1	1	1
C. NarvaezC	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. ChengSS	.211	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
Team		37	7	10	7	2	3	11

Player

.308

.283

.264

.284

.261

.223

.197

.189

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	2.2	6	3	3	0	5	53
G. WeissertRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	18
T. GuerreroRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	26
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
J. SlatenRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	18
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	13
Team	9.0	9	5	5	1	13	138

Player

2.2

1.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.231	5	2	3	2	1	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.253	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
V. Grissom2B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.211	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. AdellRF	.245	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.228	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.212	4	1	0	0	0	0	3
D. Walton2B	.319	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. MecklerLF	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	5	9	5	1	1	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. JohnsonSP	4.0	6	5	2	1	6	87
J. FerminRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	27
C. SilsethRP	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	30
T. SaucedoRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	10
M. FarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
K. YatesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	10	7	4	3	11	177

Team

BOS

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.