Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+7BOS

BOS

41-48

CHW

47-43

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

25,392 attended

Line movement

37 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

46.9%

open 46.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.5%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.9%

Close no-vig

46.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHW vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.6± 2.7high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.0± 1.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

CHW

.709

OPS

.720

▶

.722

.315

OBP

.318

.316

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.75

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.03

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 8 · CHW 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	8
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.298	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.284	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.261	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
W. Contreras1B	.287	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
R. GonzalezDH	.292	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
C. Durbin3B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.201	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.228	4	1	2	1	1	1	1
C. WongC	.294	1	2	1	1	0	2	0
Team		35	8	11	8	2	7	8

Player

.298

.284

.261

.287

.292

.220

.201

.228

.294

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	6.0	2	0	0	1	6	91
D. CoulombeRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	14
J. SlatenRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
R. WatsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	10	142

Player

6.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Vargas3B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. GrichukDH	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.265	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. AntonacciLF	.291	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
J. PerezCF	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. TeelC	.205	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. AcunaSS	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.291	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	4	1	0	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. SchultzSP	5.0	7	4	4	3	3	92
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
B. EisertRP	1.2	2	4	4	2	0	37
T. RichardsRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	14
Team	9.0	11	8	8	7	8	176

Team

BOS

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHW vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.