Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+7BOS

BOS

39-48

LAA

36-54

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

43,599 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

40.2%

open 40.7% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
40.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.8%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.9pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

LAA

★ best

+450DraftKings

edge +16.9pp · implied 17.1%

Book	BOS	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-760	+450★	+16.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.6± 1.6high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 0.9high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

LAA

.712

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.316

OBP

.318

.313

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.49

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.37

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 8 · LAA 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	3	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	8
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.319	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.284	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
W. AbreuRF	.267	3	2	1	1	0	2	0
W. Contreras1B	.285	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.226	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GonzalezDH	.300	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. DuranLF	.193	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. MonasterioSS	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.287	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team		35	8	7	7	2	6	6

Player

.319

.284

.267

.285

.226

.300

.193

.220

.287

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	6.0	4	1	1	2	7	70
J. MoranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
A. GamboaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	9	101

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

101

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.215	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. LoweLF	.217	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. AdellRF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. MecklerLF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. Walton2B	.311	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. HeinemanC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SiriCF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	1	4	1	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AldegheriSP	4.0	1	3	3	4	2	88
S. Natera Jr.RP	0.2	3	4	4	1	0	23
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	24
C. SilsethRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
B. SuterRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	0	37
Team	9.0	7	8	8	6	6	183

Team

BOS

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.