Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+11SEA

TOR

42-47

011

SEA

46-44

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

41,181 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
65.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.8%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.87

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-169

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

60.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.0pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+1340DraftKings

edge +25.0pp · implied 10.0%

SEA

no live price

Book	TOR	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+1340★	-169	+25.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 1.0high
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.2± 0.9high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.1± 2.5high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.2high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.5high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.7± 4.0low
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

SEA

.684

OPS

.720

.687

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.309

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

3.99

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TOR 0 · SEA 11 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SEA	0	5	0	0	2	4	0	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Okamoto3B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.293	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. KeysDH	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	0	1	0	0	0	8

Player

.286

.265

.238

.252

.293

.268

.211

.235

.236

.239

.000

.375

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BieberSP	4.0	6	7	7	3	3	89
A. MackoRP	1.2	3	3	3	0	2	33
T. NanceRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	13
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
M. StrawRF	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	8.0	11	11	11	3	9	162

Player

4.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.213	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.287	4	3	3	4	1	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.273	4	2	2	3	1	1	0
C. RaleighC	.161	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Young2B	.260	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
V. RoblesRF	.241	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
C. EmersonSS	.217	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Kennedy1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	11	11	11	3	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilbertSP	7.1	1	0	0	0	7	91
C. WilcoxRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	1	0	0	0	8	111

Team

TOR

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.