San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+2SF

37-51

COL

36-54

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

48,635 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 11.5

COL no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.7%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
45.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.2%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.1pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

no live price

COL

★ best

+183DraftKings

edge +9.1pp · implied 33.2%

Book	SF	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-246	+183★	+9.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Logan WebbSF
5.0± 2.0high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.2± 0.9high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 3.4low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.3± 2.8high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.0low
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.722

OPS

.720

▶

.747

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.324

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.82

4.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.53

1.36

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

7.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · COL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
COL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. RamosLF	.266	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Arraez2B	.330	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
C. SchmittLF	.283	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.246	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. LeeRF	.317	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.232	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
B. EldridgeDH	.280	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
V. BericotoRF	.298	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
E. HaaseC	.174	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. GilbertCF	.225	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	6	14	6	1	3	8

Player

.266

.330

.283

.246

.317

.232

.280

.298

.174

.225

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RaySP	6.0	5	3	3	3	4	88
S. HentgesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
C. KilianRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	7	131

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Karros3B	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.251	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
T. FreemanRF	.268	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CarriggCF	.293	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.307	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.210	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.312	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. MoniakLF	.282	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.295	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		32	4	7	4	1	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SullivanSP	5.2	12	6	6	2	4	105
J. MejiaRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	23
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
J. RomanoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	14	6	6	3	8	148

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.