Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+11ATL

NYM

36-53

314

ATL

52-35

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

40,168 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

ATL no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
64.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.3%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-171

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

60.3%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+64.3pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

ATL

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +64.3pp · implied 0.0%

Book	NYM	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+162	—★	+64.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 0.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high
Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high

RBIs

Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.2± 3.3high
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

ATL

.685

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.91

4.12

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

NYM 3 · ATL 14 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3
ATL	0	1	4	1	0	2	2	4	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

New York MetsAtlanta Braves

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.224	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.296	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.253	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.213	5	1	2	2	1	0	2
E. Wagaman1B	.214	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
F. AlvarezC	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BengeRF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.206	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
B. Baty3B	.213	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
R. MauricioSS	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.218	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	10	3	2	3	10

Player

.224

.296

.253

.213

.214

.246

.259

.206

.213

.174

.218

.259

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	5.0	5	6	3	1	4	108
A. WarrenUN	2.0	4	4	4	1	1	44
J. GerberRP	0.2	1	3	3	2	0	22
L. TorrensC	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	7
Team	8.0	12	14	11	4	5	181

Player

S. ManaeaRP

5.0

108

A. WarrenUN

2.0

J. GerberRP

0.2

L. TorrensC

0.1

Team

8.0

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonLF	.269	4	2	1	2	1	1	0
D. BaldwinC	.247	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.272	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. Olson1B	.272	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. Riley3B	.207	4	2	1	3	1	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.301	5	3	3	2	1	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.220	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. BartC	.158	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. YastrzemskiLF	.226	2	2	2	2	1	1	0
Team		37	14	12	11	5	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	5.0	7	3	3	2	3	98
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
J. RitchieSP	3.0	3	0	0	1	4	46
Team	9.0	10	3	3	3	10	155

Team

NYM

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.