Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+3DET

DET

39-50

TEX

45-44

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

37,576 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

48.2%

open 49.6% · -1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.9%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.83

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-108

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+44.1pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

DET

no live price

TEX

★ best

+378DraftKings

edge +44.1pp · implied 19.7%

Book	DET	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	-588	+378★	+44.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
6.3± 1.8high

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.3high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.2± 1.8low
Javier BaezDET
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.5± 4.3low
Joc PedersonTEX
2.1± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 1.3high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.7± 1.7low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

TEX

.725

OPS

.720

.721

.316

OBP

.318

4.45

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

3.62

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.32

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 3 · TEX 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.282	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.287	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Keith3B	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MalgeriRF	.267	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.156	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	6	3	1	1	6

Player

.282

.266

.233

.287

.213

.251

.200

.267

.156

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	5.2	3	0	0	0	5	88
T. HoltonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
K. MonteroSP	3.0	0	0	0	1	0	36
Team	9.0	3	0	0	1	5	128

Player

J. FlahertySP

5.2

T. HoltonRP

0.1

K. MonteroSP

3.0

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. NimmoRF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.190	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. DiazC	.314	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. QuantrillRP	5.0	3	3	2	1	2	66
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
B. PeoplesRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	30
C. MartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	6	3	2	1	6	126

Team

DET

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.