Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at LAD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+3LAD

43-45

LAD

59-31

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

52,284 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

68.4%

open 70.5% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
68.5%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.2%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.38

CLV pp

Open price

+224

Close price

+220

Open no-vig

29.5%

Close no-vig

29.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at LAD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+228DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 29.2%

LAD

no live price

Book	SD	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+228★	-285	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.6± 3.5medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.2± 2.5high
Enrique HernandezLAD
2.0± 3.4low

RBIs

Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
0.7± 1.3high
Dalton RushingLAD
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Griffin CanningSD
2.8± 2.4medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.6± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.774

.312

OBP

.318

▶

.341

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.60

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.14

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 0 · LAD 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.279	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.171	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Machado3B	.187	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. Sheets1B	.236	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. France1B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.234	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Song2B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	4	0	0	2	13

Player

.279

.171

.187

.236

.259

.234

.213

.260

.278

.234

.137

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14
G. CanningSP	4.0	2	1	1	2	4	73
K. HartRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	31
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	13
Team	8.0	5	3	3	3	7	131

Player

1.0

4.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Edman2B	.354	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.269	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.297	3	1	2	2	1	1	1
M. BettsSS	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.244	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. HernándezLF	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.261	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
A. Freeland2B	.225	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		27	3	5	3	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	7.0	3	0	0	2	10	100
B. StewartRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	12
A. VesiaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. KleinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	4	0	0	2	13	131

Team

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.