Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at HOU?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+2HOU

52-34

810

HOU

44-47

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

37,457 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

HOU no-vig %

50.0%

open 51.1% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.5%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at HOU?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.9pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

no live price

HOU

★ best

+240DraftKings

edge +8.9pp · implied 27.6%

Book	TB	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-335	+240★	+8.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Peter LambertHOU
5.6± 2.2medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.3high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.2± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.0± 1.9high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Jeremy PenaHOU
0.7± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.3± 2.0medium
Steven MatzTB
2.2± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

HOU

.729

OPS

.720

.735

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.319

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.65

3.68

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.66

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TB 8 · HOU 10 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	2	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	8
HOU	2	0	0	2	1	0	3	0	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysHouston Astros

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Aranda1B	.287	5	1	1	0	0	0	4
J. Caminero3B	.291	4	2	2	1	1	1	1
C. MullinsCF	.215	3	1	1	0	0	2	2
R. ViladeRF	.267	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.176	2	1	0	1	0	2	1
J. DeLucaRF	.265	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.233	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
T. WallsSS	.229	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
H. FeducciaC	.231	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	8	9	6	3	8	10

Player

.287

.291

.215

.267

.176

.265

.233

.229

.231

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	5.0	6	5	5	1	2	77
C. SulserRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	20
G. CleavingerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
C. KimbrelRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	19
C. LeguminaRP	0.0	1	2	2	1	0	12
Team	8.0	11	10	10	3	4	142

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

0.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.234	3	3	2	0	0	2	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.324	4	2	3	6	2	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.251	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.238	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Wade Jr.LF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.235	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.248	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. AllenSS	.244	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
Z. DezenzoUN	.208	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		33	10	11	10	3	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	4.0	6	7	6	4	3	82
N. PearsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	18
C. JavierSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	4	39
B. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	9	8	7	8	10	178

Team

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.