Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+5PHI

PHI

50-39

35-54

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

30,419 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

41.6%

open 42.8% · -1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.3%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.7pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +2.7pp · implied 59.1%

no live price

Book	PHI	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-162★	+134	+2.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

John RaveKC
2.0± 3.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.8high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.702

OPS

.720

▶

.713

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.314

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · KC 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	6
KC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.239	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.256	4	0	3	0	0	1	1
B. Harper1B	.274	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.310	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.227	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
B. Stott2B	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.202	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.188	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.303	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	12	5	3	3	8

Player

.239

.256

.274

.310

.227

.244

.202

.188

.253

.303

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	6.0	4	1	1	0	9	95
J. BowlanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	20
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
T. MayzaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	1	1	0	15	140

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Witt Jr.SS	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Loftin3B	.225	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.262	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. CollinsLF	.230	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. TolbertSS	.243	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	5	1	0	0	15

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	6.0	8	4	4	1	7	105
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	21
J. CuasRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	17
B. WayRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	8	165

Team

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.