Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATH?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+5MIA

MIA

48-42

ATH

41-48

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

12,532 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 10.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

46.9%

open 48.9% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
43.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.3%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.5%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.24

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATH?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.7pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

ATH

★ best

+600DraftKings

edge +24.7pp · implied 13.4%

Book	MIA	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-1200	+600★	+24.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
6.2± 2.9high
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.0± 1.7medium

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 2.4high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.6± 0.7high
Jonah HeimATH
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

ATH

.727

OPS

◀

.719

.718

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.319

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

4.33

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.41

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.49

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · ATH 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	0	1	7
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.284	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.247	4	2	2	2	1	1	1
O. LopezSS	.341	5	1	3	3	1	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.299	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
G. ConineRF	.233	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
O. CaissieRF	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.190	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MackC	.255	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	13	7	3	6	7

Player

.284

.247

.341

.299

.233

.236

.190

.255

.281

.222

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	8.0	6	1	1	1	8	100
T. ZuberRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	2	1	1	9	114

Player

S. AlcantaraSP

8.0

100

T. ZuberRP

1.0

Team

9.0

114

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Z. Gelof3B	.283	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. HeimC	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CortesRF	.281	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
H. BolteCF	.292	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Kuroda-Grauer3B	.444	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.227	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	2	7	1	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	4.2	6	4	4	2	6	84
E. AlvaradoRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	17
J. SuarezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
K. MorrisSP	3.0	7	3	3	2	0	68
Team	9.0	13	7	7	6	7	182

Team

MIA

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.