MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Meckler walked. → win prob 70→79% LAA

TOP 5TH+3LAA

LAA

24-41

LAD

42-23

MLB · At bat

Top 52-22 outs

Pitcher· LAD

A. Vesia

0.2 IP, 2 K, 0 ER

Batter· LAA

N. Madrigal

0-0

LastPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

54.0%

LAA wins · current

Pre-game: 80.3% LAD

LAA 4 · 1 LAD

LAA +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLAATop 5th Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 79% WP
Meckler · walked.
SwingLAATop 4th Inning · 4-1
+15pp→ 73% WP
Rivero · singled to right, Adell scored and Madrigal scored.
Lead flipLAATop 4th Inning · 2-1
+8pp→ 51% WP
Adell · reached on infield single to third.
Lead flipLAABottom 2nd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 54% WP
Ward · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Rushing out at second, Call to third.
Lead flipLAATop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 63% WP
Rivero · singled to center, Adell scored and Madrigal scored, Siri to third.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.22

J. Soriano

6-4 · 2.72 ERA

E. Sheehan

3-2 · 4.50 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.3% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
76.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
74.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
76.4%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.5%

-74.6ppvs pre-game · LAA favored

Leverage

±2.5

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.04

CLV pp

Open price

-205

Close price

-206

Open no-vig

64.3%

Close no-vig

64.3%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.4pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

LAD

★ best

+100DraftKings

edge +33.4pp · implied 46.9%

Book	LAA	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	-130	+100★	+33.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.5± 2.5low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.0low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 1.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 0.9high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.9low

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.6± 2.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.2± 2.3high
Andy PagesLAD
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.1± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
0.8± 0.8high
Ryan WardLAD
0.8± 1.0low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.8± 3.9low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

LAA

Angels

26-45

vs80.3%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

48-28

LAA 19.7%win prob80.3% LAD

LAD 1597 · LAA 1419Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.230	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MecklerLF	.356	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
O. Peraza2B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Schanuel1B	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. AdellRF	.241	3	2	3	0	0	0	0
N. Madrigal3B	.333	0	2	0	0	0	2	0
J. SiriLF	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. RiveroC	.170	2	0	2	4	0	0	0
Team		19	4	6	4	0	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.230

.229

.356

.273

.254

.241

.333

.286

.170

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SorianoSP	4.0	6	1	1	0	1	43
Team	4.0	6	1	1	0	1	43

Player

J. SorianoSP

4.0

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.301	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.284	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.238	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.270	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.273	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. WardLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RojasSS	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		16	1	6	1	0	0	1