MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Smith singled to left, Arenado to third. → win prob 64→72% ARI

BOT 5TH+1ARI

WSH

33-32

ARI

33-31

MLB · At bat

Bottom 51-10 outs

Pitcher· WSH

C. Cavalli

4.0 IP, 2 K, 2 ER

Batter· ARI

K. Marte

0-2

LastPitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

57.3%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 53.4% ARI

WSH 1 · 2 ARI

ARI +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingARIBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 72% WP
Smith · singled to left, Arenado to third.
SwingWSHTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 46% WP
Abrams · homered to right (367 feet).
SwingARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 67% WP
Carroll · homered to center (417 feet).
SwingARITop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 58% WP
Garc · ía Jr. grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Wood out at second.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.11

C. Cavalli

3-3 · 3.62 ERA

M. Soroka

7-3 · 3.49 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ARI no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

86.5%

+32.1ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

±5.9

pp · next play

medium · 35/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.9pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+114DraftKings

edge +1.9pp · implied 44.7%

ARI

no live price

Book	WSH	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+114★	-137	+1.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.1± 4.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.5± 2.8low
Michael SorokaARI
5.4± 3.4low

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.0± 0.8high
Daylen LileWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 3.0high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 2.2high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 2.1high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.7± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.1± 2.3low
Ryne NelsonARI
2.9± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

WSH

Nationals

36-36

vs53.4%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

35-35

WSH 46.6%win prob53.4% ARI

ARI 1492 · WSH 1486Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. WoodRF	.267	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.288	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.203	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.270	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		16	1	1	1	1	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.259

.243

.288

.203

.255

.270

.215

.233

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. CavalliSP	4.0	6	2	2	1	2	71
Team	4.0	6	2	2	1	2	71

Player

C. CavalliSP

4.0

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.248	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.286	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. MorenoC	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.258	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Smith1B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.274	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.239	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Groover3B	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.282	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		17	2	6	2	1	1	2