Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+4ARI

WSH

33-33

ARI

34-31

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

35,540 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ARI no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+680DraftKings

edge +32.8pp · implied 12.0%

ARI

no live price

Book	WSH	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+680★	-1460	+32.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Jake IrvinWSH
4.8± 3.1low
Kohl DrakeARI
4.0± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ARI

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.314

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.54

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.20

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

WSH 1 · ARI 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ARI	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.265	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead3B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.286	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.197	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.276	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	3	1	1	2	7

Player

.265

.256

.247

.286

.197

.254

.276

.213

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	5.0	7	4	4	1	2	88
R. CornelioRP	2.0	2	1	1	3	1	44
G. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	9	5	5	4	4	144

Player

C. CavalliSP

5.0

R. CornelioRP

2.0

G. VarlandRP

1.0

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.285	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
G. MorenoC	.255	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.256	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
P. Smith1B	.167	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.278	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.237	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Groover1B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.275	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
I. Vargas1B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	5	9	5	2	4	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SorokaSP	7.0	3	1	1	2	6	100
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	3	1	1	2	7	124

Team

WSH

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.