Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+2STL

CIN

31-33

STL

35-28

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

31,335 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
61.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.1± 1.1high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high

Hits

Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium
Brady SingerCIN
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

STL

.707

OPS

◀

.720

.694

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.35

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.15

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CIN 3 · STL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3
STL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DunnCF	.300	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. Steer1B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. BensonRF	.191	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. McLain2B	.206	4	2	2	2	2	0	2
T. StephensonC	.203	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.267	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	10	3	3	0	9

Player

.300

.274

.253

.250

.266

.191

.206

.203

.214

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	3.0	1	0	0	5	4	70
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
C. PaddackSP	2.0	3	3	3	0	2	33
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
S. MollRP	0.0	2	2	0	1	0	16
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
Team	8.0	6	5	3	8	7	164

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

Team

8.0

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
I. HerreraDH	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.290	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.303	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
B. TorresLF	.263	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. FerminLF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.199	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.194	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
N. VelazquezLF	.389	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	6	3	1	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.0	5	2	2	0	5	83
G. SorianoRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	17
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	8
R. StanekRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	10	3	3	0	9	132

Team

CIN

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.