MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Scott II hit sacrifice bunt, Fermín scored on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II to first on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II to second, Velázquez safe at third on error. → win prob 80→96% STL

BOT 8TH+1STL

CIN

31-32

STL

34-28

MLB · At bat

Bottom 80-00 outs

Pitcher· CIN

S. Moll

0.0 IP, 1 ER

Batter· STL

I. Herrera

0-3, 1 K

LastSam Moll pitches to Ivan Herrera

Live · model leanBot 8thPolls every 30s

59.1%

STL wins · current

Pre-game: 58.0% STL

CIN 3 · 4 STL

STL +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsSTL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSTLBottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 96% WP
Scott II · hit sacrifice bunt, Fermín scored on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II to first on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II to second, Velázquez safe at third on error.
ClutchCINTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+18pp→ 37% WP
McLain · homered to center (405 feet).
SwingSTLBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+24pp→ 78% WP
Torres · homered to right (368 feet), Walker scored.
ClutchSTLBottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 47% WP
Burleson · doubled to left.
SwingCINTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 44% WP
McLain · homered to center (411 feet).

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.38

R. Lowder

3-3 · 5.40 ERA

M. McGreevy

3-5 · 2.98 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.8%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

94.0%

+36.1ppvs pre-game · STL favored

Leverage

±4.4

pp · next play

low · 22/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CIN

no live price

STL

no live price

Book	CIN	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+128	-155	+0.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.2± 3.4low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 3.5low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.3± 1.2high
JJ BledayCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.3± 2.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.9± 1.9high
Blake DunnCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.0high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 0.8high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Brady SingerCIN
3.1± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

CIN

Reds

37-35

vs58.0%STL

STL★

Cardinals

37-28

CIN 42.0%win prob58.0% STL

STL 1517 · CIN 1486Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. DunnRF	.303	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. BensonRF	.191	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. McLain2B	.207	3	2	2	2	2	0	1
T. StephensonC	.197	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
E. ArroyoSS	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.267	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	9	3	3	0	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.303

.274

.253

.250

.266

.191

.207

.197

.231

.267

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. LowderSP	3.0	1	0	0	5	4	70
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
C. PaddackSP	2.0	3	3	3	0	2	33
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
S. MollRP	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	16
Team	7.0	6	4	4	8	7	150

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Team

7.0

150

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
I. HerreraDH	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.292	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.304	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
B. TorresLF	.237	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. FerminLF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.199	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.195	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
N. VelazquezOF	.389	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		27	4	6	3	1	8	7