
PIT
34-32

ATL
45-21
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
ATL no-vig %
57.3%
open 56.3% · +1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATL wins
PIT 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked ATL +18pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+24.0pp
best edge · ATL · DraftKings
PIT
no live price
ATL
★ bestedge +24.0pp · implied 47.2%
| Book | PIT | ATL | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -128 | -101★ | +24.0 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Recap · MLB
tlanta Braves held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.
PIT +1.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PIT · top performer

Spencer Horwitz
1B
3-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
ATL · top performer

Michael Harris II
CF
1-1
AB-H
0
R
3
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .286 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .309 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .263 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .286 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .193 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .200 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .291 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .222 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .140 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .252 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .264 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .238 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 32 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | |
| 5.1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 88 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 139 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .254 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .260 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .267 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .275 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .302 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .208 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .235 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .294 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .083 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .306 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 28 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 88 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 27 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 152 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantPIT
ATL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
5
Hits
3
2
Runs
3
1
Errors
1
Current series
ATL wins series 3-0
Season series
ATL leads series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 7th Inning
S. Horwitz
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS
B. Chandler
SPTop reliever
5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 2 BB
M. Harris II
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
B. Elder
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB
How it ended
ATL beat PIT 3-2. Harris II's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).
Win probability
ATL vs PIT
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactHarris II · doubled to right, Mateo scored, Smith scored and Yastrzemski scored.
Lowe · doubled to right.
Triolo · popped out to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
PIT won 2 · ATL won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Gonzales 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
II 3
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 543 plays
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Rodríguez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
+13pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Mangum stole second.
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Mangum stole second.
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Didier Fuentes pitches to Endy Rodriguez
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Triolo popped out to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
+18pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Didier Fuentes pitches to Jared Triolo
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Mangum reached on infield single to second, Cruz to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
−12pp
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 6 : Ball 2
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Didier Fuentes pitches to Jake Mangum
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Callihan struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
+13pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
PIT 2·ATL 3
Team stats
PIT
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
2
Runs
3
5
Hits
3
1
Errors
1
9
TB
5
1
HR
0
4
BB
4
8
K
10
15
LOB
8
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·PIT +133/ATL -161
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 15 players in cohortThe receipts
+2.11
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-143
Close price
-157
Open no-vig
56.3%
Close no-vig
58.4%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 78 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
71.9%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
68.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.1%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.18 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.