HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 2
    LAA 0@LAD 0
    -12.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 9
    SEA 4@DET 3
    -42.1pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    CIN 3@STL 4
    +36.1pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    MIL 2@COL 3
    +49.5pphigh
  • MLBBot 5
    WSH 1@ARI 2
    +32.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    NYM 2@SD 0
    -33.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    CHW 5@PHI 9
    +46.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 8
    ATH 5@HOU 0
    -58.5pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    KC 6@MIN 1
    -54.0pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    CLE 0@TEX 8
    +51.2pplow
  • WNBA39.9 - 3rd
    CHI 53@TOR 70
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATL
PIT

PIT

34-32

2
3
ATL

ATL

45-21

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
37,697 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ATL no-vig %

57.3%

open 56.3% · +1.0

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL61.3%52.3%ATL NO-VIG %Jun 6, 4 PMJun 7, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

PIT 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1010000002
ATL000000303

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

56%Last 7 · 57-44
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.0pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

ATL

★ best
-101DraftKings

edge +24.0pp · implied 47.2%

BookPITATLBest edge
DraftKings-128-101★+24.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, Jun 7·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0/VegasATL -161

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. YastrzemskiATL+54.3pp
  2. 2E. SiskPIT−52.3pp
  3. 3D. SmithATL+49.0pp

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

3

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. Horwitz1B
.2863121110
N. Gonzales3B
.3094000001
B. ReynoldsLF
.2633000011
R. O'HearnRF
.2864000001
M. OzunaDH
.1933000002
T. CallihanLF
.2004000002
J. MangumLF
.2914010000
J. TrioloSS
.2223100010
H. DavisC
.1401000010
- D. Wendzel3B
.0000000000
- B. Lowe2B
.2521010000
- O. CruzCF
.2640000000
- E. RodriguezC
.2382010001
Team32251148

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. MontgomeryRP
1.01002225
B. ChandlerSP
5.11322788
E. SiskRP
1.21000126
Team8.0332410139

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.RF
.2544000003
M. DubonSS
.2603000012
M. Olson1B
.2674000000
O. Albies2B
.2754010002
D. SmithDH
.3023100011
A. Riley3B
.2083000002
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2352100010
J. MateoSS
.2942100010
S. LeonC
.0832010000
- M. Harris IICF
.3061013000
- A. WynnsC
.0700000000
Team283330410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. ElderSP
6.02222488
R. LopezRP
1.11001227
T. KinleyRP
0.20001017
D. FuentesRP
1.02000220
Team9.052248152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      19%·90.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.5 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      9%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      27%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      80%·97.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·86.5 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      36%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.0 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lopez
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      44%·84.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      7%·72.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      55%·84.8 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      45%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      71%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Jun 5PITPIT3@ATLATL6
Jun 6PITPIT3@ATLATL6
Jun 7PITPIT2@ATLATL3today

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

Jun 5PITPIT3@ATLATL6
Jun 6PITPIT3@ATLATL6
Jun 7PITPIT2@ATLATL3today
Jul 7ATLATL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 8ATLATL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 9ATLATL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

PITPIT+13343%
ATLATL-16162%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 7th Inning

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Top reliever

5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat PIT 3-2. Harris II's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Win probability

ATL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+42pp→ 85% WP

Harris II · doubled to right, Mateo scored, Smith scored and Yastrzemski scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 31% WP

Lowe · doubled to right.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 87% WP

Triolo · popped out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1010000002
ATL00000030—3

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · ATL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Gonzales 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

II 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
ATL

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  2. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  4. T9

    Mangum stole second.

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  5. T9

    Mangum stole second.

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  10. T9

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Endy Rodriguez

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  11. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  12. T9

    Triolo popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

    +18pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  16. T9

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  17. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  18. T9

    Mangum reached on infield single to second, Cruz to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

    −12pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  27. T9

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Jake Mangum

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  28. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

  29. T9

    Callihan struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

    +13pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 2·ATL 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

9

TB

5

1

HR

0

4

BB

4

8

K

10

15

LOB

8

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·PIT +133/ATL -161

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.11

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.5± 2.0low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.7± 3.2low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nick GonzalesPIT
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    2.3± 2.5high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    2.4± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    68.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.