MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Gelof scored on error, Kurtz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Peña. → win prob 75→82% ATH

MID 8TH+5ATH

ATH

30-34

HOU

30-36

MLB · At bat

Mid 80-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 8th inning

Live · model leanMid 8thPolls every 30s

68.8%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 60.0% HOU

ATH 5 · 0 HOU

ATH +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingATHTop 4th Inning · 4-0
+8pp→ 82% WP
Gelof · scored on error, Kurtz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Peña.
SwingATHBottom 3rd Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 73% WP
Peña grounded into double play, third to second to first, Trammell out at second.
SwingATHTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 70% WP
Rooker · doubled to left, Langeliers scored.
Lead flipATHTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 61% WP
Kurtz · homered to right center (389 feet), Williams scored.
SwingATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 37% WP
Paredes · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Walker out at second.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.41

G. Jump

1-1 · 3.75 ERA

M. Burrows

3-7 · 5.66 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

50.0%

open 49.6% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-58.5ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.6pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

HOU

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +9.6pp · implied 50.4%

Book	ATH	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112★	+9.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.2± 2.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.1± 3.3low
J.T. GinnATH
4.8± 3.6low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.4high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.6± 2.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
2.2± 2.0high
Shea LangeliersATH
2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.0± 1.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.0± 1.5high
Nick KurtzATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.8low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.9± 2.5low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

ATH

Athletics

30-41

vs60.0%HOU

HOU★

Astros

35-41

ATH 40.0%win prob60.0% HOU

HOU 1501 · ATH 1458Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz1B	.278	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. CortesRF	.314	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. LangeliersC	.282	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. RookerDH	.206	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.167	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
Z. Gelof3B	.264	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Williams2B	.143	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. BolteCF	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	8	4	2	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.278

.314

.282

.228

.206

.167

.264

.235

.143

.313

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. JumpRP	6.1	3	0	0	3	3	96
J. SternerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	7.0	3	0	0	3	4	112

Player

G. JumpRP

6.1

J. SternerRP

0.2

Team

7.0

112

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.318	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Walker1B	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.215	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MeyersCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. VazquezC	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.199	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.266	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.297	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.249	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		23	0	3	0	0	3	4