MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIA

37-25

MIA

31-35

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

14,525 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIA no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.5pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-116DraftKings

edge +6.5pp · implied 50.4%

MIA

no live price

Book	TB	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-116★	-112	+6.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.4± 2.7low
Shane McClanahanTB
5.0± 2.0low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.4± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.4± 2.7high
Junior CamineroTB
2.0± 1.8high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.7± 3.7low
Steven MatzTB
2.8± 2.5low
Ryan GustoMIA
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

TB 1 · MIA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.325	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Palacios2B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.176	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.264	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.207	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	6	1	0	1	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.325

.270

.240

.277

.182

.176

.286

.264

.207

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. JaxRP	5.0	3	0	0	2	4	62
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	23
S. MatzSP	1.0	0	2	1	2	0	38
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	15
Team	8.0	5	4	3	6	8	138

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. HicksC	.262	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. LopezSS	.336	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.214	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.302	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. HernandezLF	.219	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.221	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.201	1	1	1	0	0	2	0
J. MackC	.217	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.205	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.196	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		26	4	5	3	0	6	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. AlcantaraSP	7.0	5	1	1	1	7	90
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
A. BenderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	24
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	10	131

Team

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs TB.

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.