MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NYY

BOS

27-36

NYY

38-26

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

46,144 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.8% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.50

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Line barely moved

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.4pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

NYY

★ best

-149DraftKings

edge +10.4pp · implied 57.2%

Book	BOS	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+123	-149★	+10.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Payton TolleBOS
6.4± 3.8low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.3± 2.5low

Hits

Ben RiceNYY
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.1high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.9high
Jarren DuranBOS
2.3± 2.4high
Willson ContrerasBOS
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 1.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.3low
Will WarrenNYY
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BOS 1 · NYY 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
NYY	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. DuranLF	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.286	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Contreras1B	.298	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.303	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Seigler2B	.333	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Mayer2B	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.255	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	0	1	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.212

.286

.278

.298

.244

.303

.192

.333

.218

.255

.267

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. SuarezSP	6.1	6	1	1	0	6	90
T. GuerreroRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. SlatenRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	2	25
J. La SorsaRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	8
Team	8.0	10	6	6	1	10	133

Player

6.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Goldschmidt1B	.275	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.299	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. BellingerLF	.273	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.260	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. GrishamCF	.222	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
A. VolpeSS	.211	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.234	4	1	1	3	1	0	3
J. CaballeroSS	.257	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. SanchezC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. JonesRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.177	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	10	6	2	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SchlittlerSP	5.2	4	1	1	1	5	92
F. CruzRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	6	133

Team

BOS

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs BOS.

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYY vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.