HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBBot 8
    CIN 3@STL 3
    +0.4pppeak
  • MLBTop 2
    LAA 0@LAD 0
    -12.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 9
    SEA 4@DET 3
    -43.2pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    MIL 2@COL 3
    +49.5pphigh
  • MLBBot 5
    WSH 1@ARI 2
    +32.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    NYM 2@SD 0
    -33.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    CHW 5@PHI 9
    +46.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    ATH 5@HOU 0
    -58.5pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    KC 6@MIN 1
    -54.0pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    CLE 0@TEX 8
    +51.2pplow
  • WNBA39.9 - 3rd
    CHI 53@TOR 70
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
BAL

BAL

31-35

4
6
TOR

TOR

32-34

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,278 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

56.1%

open 55.1% · +1.0

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL60.1%51.1%TOR NO-VIG %Jun 6, 4 PMJun 7, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

BAL 4 · TOR 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000400004
TOR000005016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

56%Last 7 · 57-44
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.2pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

BAL

★ best
+104DraftKings

edge +3.2pp · implied 46.0%

TOR

no live price

BookBALTORBest edge
DraftKings+104★-135+3.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+118

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.9%

Market faded the model

MLB·Sun, Jun 7·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -143

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Baltimore Orioles, 6–4.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. GimenezTOR+35.3pp
  2. 2S. BazBAL−34.5pp
  3. 3K. GausmanTOR−32.7pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon Valenzuela

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardLF
.2554112100
G. HendersonSS
.2224000002
A. RutschmanC
.2674010001
P. Alonso1B
.2433000010
S. BasalloC
.2673000002
C. CowserRF
.2444121101
T. O'NeillRF
.1624010001
J. Holliday2B
.2243110011
B. Alexander3B
.2774121001
- L. TaverasCF
.2581000001
- S. HuffC
.2220000000
Team344842210

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BazSP
5.27511381
Y. CanoRP
0.11000010
G. WolframRP
0.21000117
R. GarciaRP
0.21110113
T. WellsRP
0.2000007
Team8.0106215128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerDH
.2074000000
Y. PinangoLF
.3014121100
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2874000001
J. SanchezRF
.2884120001
E. Clement2B
.3064110001
B. ValenzuelaC
.2563112111
K. Okamoto3B
.2354111001
A. GimenezSS
.2244121000
M. StrawRF
.2322000000
- D. VarshoCF
.2560000000
- N. LukesRF
.3162011000
Team356106215

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. GausmanSP
5.05440593
A. MackoRP
1.01000218
C. SeaboldRP
0.11001010
T. RogersRP
1.10001117
L. VarlandRP
1.11000217
Team9.0844210155

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    81 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      2%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      29%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      23%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      43%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      39%·83.9 mph·28% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Macko
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      39%·94.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      6%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      65%·83.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      35%·74.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      47%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      35%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      18%·86.9 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      40%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

4

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Jun 5BALBAL13@TORTOR3
Jun 6BALBAL4@TORTOR6
Jun 7BALBAL4@TORTOR6today

Season series

TOR leads series 4-3

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5
May 30TORTOR5@BALBAL6
May 31TORTOR5@BALBAL9
Jun 5BALBAL13@TORTOR3
Jun 6BALBAL4@TORTOR6
Jun 7BALBAL4@TORTOR6today
Sep 11BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 12BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 13BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 21TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 22TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 23TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11846%
TORTOR-14359%

↘6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
B. Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat BAL 6-4. Gim's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

TOR vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 59% WP

Cowser · homered to right center (400 feet).

BALTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+15pp→ 88% WP

Ward · homered to left (380 feet), Alexander scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+21pp→ 57% WP

Gim · énez doubled to right, Okamoto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000400004
TOR00000501—6

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · TOR won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Ward 2

0
5

Inn 6

Pinango 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Valenzuela 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
TOR

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  2. T9

    Alexander struck out looking.

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  6. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  8. T9

    Holliday grounded out to pitcher, Cowser to second.

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  13. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  14. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  15. T9

    O'Neill flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

    +6pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  17. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    · ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  18. T9

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  19. T9

    Cowser reached on infield single to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

    −7pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  25. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Colton Cowser

    ·

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  26. T9

    Lukes in right field.

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  27. T9

    Varsho in center field.

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  28. T9

    Pinango in left field.

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·TOR 6

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 4·TOR 6

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

6

8

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

18

TB

18

2

HR

2

2

BB

1

10

K

5

12

LOB

14

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8·BAL +118/TOR -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.5± 2.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    2.0± 3.0high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.0± 1.6high
  • Charles McAdooTOR
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Charles McAdooTOR
    1.0± 1.4low
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.8high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.5low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.