
BAL
31-35

TOR
32-34
Line movement
200 snapshots
TOR spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
TOR no-vig %
56.1%
open 55.1% · +1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TOR wins
BAL 4 · TOR 6 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TOR +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+3.2pp
best edge · BAL · DraftKings
BAL
★ bestedge +3.2pp · implied 46.0%
TOR
no live price
| Book | BAL | TOR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +104★ | -135 | +3.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
-1.02
CLV pp
Open price
+113
Close price
+118
Open no-vig
44.9%
Close no-vig
43.9%
Market faded the model
Recap · MLB
oronto Blue Jays held off Baltimore Orioles, 6–4.
TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BAL · top performer

Colton Cowser
RF
4-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
TOR · top performer

Brandon Valenzuela
C
3-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .255 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .222 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .267 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .243 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .267 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .244 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .162 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .224 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .277 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .258 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 34 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 81 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 128 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .207 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .301 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .287 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .288 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .306 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .256 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| .235 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .224 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .232 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .256 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .316 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 35 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 93 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 155 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantBAL
TOR
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
10
4
Runs
6
1
Errors
0
Current series
TOR wins series 2-1
Season series
TOR leads series 4-3
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
6· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning
C. Cowser
RFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
S. Baz
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB
B. Valenzuela
CBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
K. Gausman
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H
How it ended
TOR beat BAL 6-4. Gim's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).
Win probability
TOR vs BAL
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCowser · homered to right center (400 feet).
Ward · homered to left (380 feet), Alexander scored.
Gim · énez doubled to right, Okamoto scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
BAL won 1 · TOR won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Ward 2
Inn 6
Pinango 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Valenzuela 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 546 plays
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Alexander struck out looking.
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
+3pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Louis Varland pitches to Blaze Alexander
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Holliday grounded out to pitcher, Cowser to second.
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
+5pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Louis Varland pitches to Jackson Holliday
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
O'Neill flied out to center.BIG MOMENT
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
+6pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Louis Varland pitches to Tyler O'Neill
· ·
BAL 4·TOR 6
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Cowser reached on infield single to third.BIG MOMENT
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
−7pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Louis Varland pitches to Colton Cowser
·
BAL 4·TOR 6
Lukes in right field.
BAL 4·TOR 6
Varsho in center field.
BAL 4·TOR 6
Pinango in left field.
BAL 4·TOR 6
Top of the 9th inning
BAL 4·TOR 6
End of the 8th inning
BAL 4·TOR 6
Team stats
BAL
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
4
Runs
6
8
Hits
10
1
Errors
0
18
TB
18
2
HR
2
2
BB
1
10
K
5
12
LOB
14
Betting line
TOR -1.5·O/U 8·BAL +118/TOR -143
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.1%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
52.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.