MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Fulford doubled to center. → win prob 62→68% COL

TOP 6TH+2COL

MIL

39-23

COL

24-41

MLB · At bat

Top 60-10 outs

Pitcher· COL

K. Freeland

5.0 IP, 2 K, 1 ER

Batter· MIL

W. Contreras

0-2

LastPitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

54.9%

COL wins · current

Pre-game: 66.2% MIL

MIL 1 · 3 COL

COL +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchCOLTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 62% WP
Turang · grounded out to first.
SwingCOLBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 65% WP
Johnston · doubled to center.
SwingMILTop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 48% WP
Rengifo · doubled to center, Vaughn scored.
Lead flipCOLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 61% WP
Tovar · doubled to right, Castro scored.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.93

S. Drohan

2-1 · 2.87 ERA

K. Freeland

1-6 · 8.06 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.5

open O/U 12.5

COL no-vig %

37.9%

open 38.4% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
25.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
21.3%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
25.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

95.0%

+69.2ppvs pre-game · COL favored

Leverage

±3.7

pp · next play

low · 16/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.47

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

62.1%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.0pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

-186DraftKings

edge +4.0pp · implied 62.2%

COL

no live price

Book	MIL	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-186★	+153	+4.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

COL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.5low
Brandon SproatMIL
4.6± 2.0low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 1.1high
Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 1.0high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.4± 2.4high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.1± 2.8high
Jake McCarthyCOL
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.8± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

MIL★

Brewers

44-24

vs66.2%MIL

COL

Rockies

24-49

MIL 66.2%win prob33.8% COL

MIL 1582 · COL 1375Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ChourioLF	.300	3	0	3	0	0	0	0
B. Turang2B	.279	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.329	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezDH	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.203	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. PerkinsCF	.088	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.189	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		19	1	5	1	0	1	2

Player

AVG

RBI

.300

.279

.280

.329

.192

.230

.203

.088

.189

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. DrohanRP	5.0	4	3	3	1	4	65
Team	5.0	4	3	3	1	4	65

Player

S. DrohanRP

5.0

Team

5.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. Castro2B	.258	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.211	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.240	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.228	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McCarthyCF	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordC	.217	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Stevens2B	.043	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.316	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		17	3	4	3	0	1	4