Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at COL?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+8MIL

MIL

40-23

124

COL

24-42

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

32,270 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.5

open O/U 12.5

COL no-vig %

37.9%

open 38.4% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

13.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
26.7%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
22.7%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
26.7%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.47

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

62.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at COL?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIL

no live price

COL

no live price

Book	MIL	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-188	+760	+0.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.0± 4.3medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.9high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.5medium

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

COL

.735

OPS

.720

▶

.746

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.324

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.82

3.47

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.51

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.51

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 12 · COL 4 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +23pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	1	0	0	0	7	0	0	4	12
COL	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChourioLF	.293	6	0	3	0	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.281	5	0	1	2	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.285	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.341	5	3	3	1	0	0	0
G. SanchezC	.206	5	2	2	3	1	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.244	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.202	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
B. PerkinsCF	.101	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.194	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
S. FrelickRF	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		42	12	17	12	1	3	5

Player

.293

.281

.285

.341

.206

.244

.202

.101

.194

.223

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. DrohanSP	6.1	5	3	3	1	4	83
C. PatrickRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	21
C. YohoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	18
Team	9.0	7	4	4	1	7	122

Player

S. DrohanSP

6.1

C. PatrickRP

1.2

C. YohoRP

1.0

Team

9.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.262	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.209	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.242	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. Karros3B	.225	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McCarthyCF	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. FulfordDH	.217	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Stevens2B	.043	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.314	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.216	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ThompsonRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	7	4	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.0	7	3	3	1	2	89
J. HillRP	0.1	4	5	5	2	0	22
K. ThompsonRP	3.2	6	4	4	0	3	47
Team	9.0	17	12	12	3	5	158

Team

MIL

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.