Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DET?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+1DET

SEA

34-32

DET

27-39

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

34,893 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

47.9%

open 47.4% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
45.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.4%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DET?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.2pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +10.2pp · implied 47.4%

DET

no live price

Book	SEA	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-127	+10.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

DET

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.731

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.319

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.56

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.21

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

SEA 4 · DET 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	4
DET	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.253	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.258	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.257	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.285	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.259	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wisdom3B	.143	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
C. EmersonSS	.242	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. PeredaC	.292	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	4	11	4	0	3	11

Player

.253

.258

.257

.285

.259

.271

.143

.242

.292

.276

.133

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	5.2	2	1	1	1	5	100
J. FerrerRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	18
C. CriswellRP	0.0	3	2	2	0	0	13
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. MunozRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	19
Team	8.2	6	5	5	5	7	176

Player

L. CastilloSP

5.2

100

0.1

0.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

176

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.291	4	1	2	3	1	1	1
G. Torres2B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.305	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. DinglerC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Keith3B	.266	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.212	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.165	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
W. PerezRF	.178	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.141	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	6	5	1	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	5.0	6	3	3	1	7	87
D. SommersRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	11
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	17
T. HoltonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
D. AndersonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	16
W. VestRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	11	4	4	3	11	150

Team

SEA

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.