MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Wisdom struck out swinging. → win prob 69→76% SEA

TOP 9TH+1SEA

SEA

34-31

DET

26-39

MLB · At bat

Top 91-20 outs

Pitcher· DET

W. Vest

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· SEA

J. Naylor

1-4, 1 RBI, 1 K

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

59.4%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 58.7% SEA

SEA 4 · 3 DET

SEA +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsDET leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipDETBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+30pp→ 54% WP
Pérez tripled to right, Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.
SwingSEABottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 85% WP
Jones · flied out to center.
SwingSEATop 6th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 81% WP
Emerson · hit by pitch, Naylor scored, Wisdom to second, Arozarena to third.
SwingSEATop 6th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 75% WP
Naylor · doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.
Lead flipDETBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 56% WP
McGonigle · homered to right (420 feet).

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.84

L. Castillo

2-5 · 5.53 ERA

J. Flaherty

1-7 · 5.31 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

47.9%

open 47.4% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.1%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.5%

-43.2ppvs pre-game · SEA favored

Leverage

±2.9

pp · next play

low · 8/100

1-point game · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.3pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +11.3pp · implied 47.4%

DET

no live price

Book	SEA	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-127	+11.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
5.9± 2.6low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.2low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low

Hits

Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.4high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.2± 0.9high
Riley GreeneDET
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3± 2.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.2± 3.6high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.2± 2.6high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.6high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.0± 3.3low
Bryan WooSEA
2.7± 3.5low
George KirbySEA
2.7± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

SEA★

Mariners

38-38

vs58.7%SEA

DET

Tigers

28-41

SEA 58.7%win prob41.3% DET

SEA 1519 · DET 1458Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Young2B	.253	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.258	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.254	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.285	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.260	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wisdom3B	.143	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
C. Emerson3B	.242	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. PeredaC	.292	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	10	4	0	3	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.253

.258

.254

.285

.260

.271

.143

.242

.292

.133

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. CastilloSP	5.2	2	1	1	1	5	100
J. FerrerRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	18
C. CriswellRP	0.0	3	2	2	0	0	13
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	5	3	3	3	7	157

Player

L. CastilloSP

5.2

100

0.1

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

157

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. CarpenterRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.288	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
G. Torres2B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.305	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. DinglerC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Keith3B	.266	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.213	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.165	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.178	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.213	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.141	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	5	3	1	3	7