MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Duran doubled to left, Foscue scored and Nimmo scored. → win prob 89→95% TEX

TOP 7TH+8TEX

CLE

37-29

TEX

31-33

MLB · At bat

Top 72-20 outs

Pitcher· TEX

P. Gray

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· CLE

A. Martinez

1-2

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

74.6%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 57.6% CLE

CLE 0 · 8 TEX

TEX +8

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTEXBottom 3rd Inning · 0-5
+6pp→ 95% WP
Duran · doubled to left, Foscue scored and Nimmo scored.
SwingTEXBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 87% WP
Jung · homered to right (382 feet).
SwingTEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 77% WP
Foscue · homered to left (417 feet), Jung scored.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.40

J. Cantillo

4-2 · 3.92 ERA

J. deGrom

4-4 · 3.48 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+51.2ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.8pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+123DraftKings

edge +14.8pp · implied 42.8%

TEX

no live price

Book	CLE	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+123★	-149	+14.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.6low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 3.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.5low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.3± 0.8high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.0high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Jose RamirezCLE
2.1± 2.2high
Joc PedersonTEX
2.0± 3.0high
Josh JungTEX
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Jose RamirezCLE
0.7± 0.7high
Joc PedersonTEX
0.7± 0.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

CLE★

Guardians

42-34

vs57.6%CLE

TEX

Rangers

34-36

CLE 57.6%win prob42.4% TEX

CLE 1536 · TEX 1496Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Bazzana2B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.234	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. KwanCF	.221	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.138	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.282	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		21	0	3	0	0	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.273

.239

.252

.232

.232

.234

.221

.138

.282

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. CantilloSP	5.0	9	7	7	2	7	97
W. DionSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	18
Team	6.0	10	8	8	3	7	115

Player

J. CantilloSP

5.0

W. DionSP

1.0

Team

6.0

115

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. LangfordLF	.233	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. Jung3B	.314	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
B. NimmoRF	.249	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Foscue2B	.262	2	2	1	2	1	1	0
E. Duran2B	.286	3	1	2	2	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.234	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.185	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. DiazC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		27	8	10	8	4	3	7