Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TEX?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+10TEX

CLE

37-30

010

TEX

32-33

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

34,851 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
51.7%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TEX?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.2pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +3.2pp · implied 43.6%

TEX

no live price

Book	CLE	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+119★	-144	+3.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.2± 1.2high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.7± 1.6high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.5± 1.0high
Jo AdellCLE
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Kumar RockerTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

TEX

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.720

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.15

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

CLE 0 · TEX 10 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TEX	2	0	4	1	0	1	0	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.271	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. KwanLF	.220	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.140	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.280	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. FryRF	.256	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. FairchildCF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	0	6	0	0	2	8

Player

.271

.238

.256

.230

.231

.232

.220

.140

.280

.256

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	9	7	7	2	7	97
W. DionRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	1	37
A. HedgesC	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	19
Team	8.0	16	10	10	3	8	153

Player

J. CantilloSP

5.0

W. DionRP

2.0

A. HedgesC

1.0

Team

8.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. LangfordLF	.233	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. Jung3B	.313	4	3	2	1	1	1	0
B. NimmoRF	.249	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Foscue2B	.254	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
E. DuranSS	.293	5	1	4	3	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.238	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.237	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.179	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. DiazC	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.296	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.172	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		39	10	16	10	4	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	6.0	3	0	0	2	6	87
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
L. CurveloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	6	0	0	2	8	124

Team

CLE

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.