MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SF

27-39

CHC

34-32

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

36,317 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.3%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.31

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.5pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

+193DraftKings

edge +23.5pp · implied 32.0%

CHC

no live price

Book	SF	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+193★	-262	+23.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high
Bryce EldridgeSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.725

OPS

.717

.726

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.23

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.1

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 2 · CHC 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
CHC	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchmittDH	.281	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.240	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
L. Arraez2B	.323	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. LeeRF	.323	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.280	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Chapman3B	.245	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
D. SusacC	.297	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. SmithRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.444	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	4	2	0	4	9

Player

.281

.240

.323

.242

.323

.280

.245

.297

.231

.000

.444

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. McDonaldSP	5.0	4	1	1	3	6	87
J. BrubakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
E. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
K. WinnRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	10.0	7	1	1	5	10	154

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.258	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. BallesterosDH	.239	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
M. Busch1B	.246	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Bregman3B	.243	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.247	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.227	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. KellyC	.280	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	1	7	1	0	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	1.0	2	1	1	2	2	35
J. AssadSP	6.1	1	0	0	1	5	72
J. WebbRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
T. ThorntonRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	17
Team	10.0	4	2	1	4	9	147

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.