MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Melendez homered to right center (398 feet). → win prob 78→86% NYM

TOP 6TH+3NYM

NYM

28-36

33-30

MLB · At bat

Top 61-11 out

Pitcher· SD

Y. Matsui

1.1 IP, 1 ER

Batter· NYM

L. Torrens

0-2

LastPitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

63.1%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 57.5% SD

NYM 5 · 2 SD

NYM +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYMTop 6th Inning · 5-2
+8pp→ 86% WP
Melendez · homered to right center (398 feet).
SwingSDBottom 5th Inning · 4-2
+12pp→ 23% WP
Fermin · homered to left center (404 feet), Taylor scored.
Lead flipNYMBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 58% WP
France · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Merrill out at second, Tatis Jr. to third.
SwingNYMTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 65% WP
Bichette · doubled to left, Benge to third.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.56

H. Brazoban

3-1 · 2.25 ERA

R. Vasquez

5-3 · 3.31 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-56.5ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+30.2pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

★ best

+244DraftKings

edge +30.2pp · implied 27.3%

Book	NYM	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-342	+244★	+30.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.6± 3.2low
Michael KingSD
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.0± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
1.9± 2.0high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 2.7high
Jared YoungNYM
1.6± 2.2high

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.6± 0.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.6± 3.0low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

NYM

Mets

30-39

vs57.5%SD

SD★

Padres

34-31

NYM 42.5%win prob57.5% SD

SD 1504 · NYM 1475Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.258	3	2	3	0	0	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.236	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.278	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
J. Young1B	.291	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.253	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. Semien2B	.223	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. Baty3B	.236	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. MelendezDH	.205	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. TorrensC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		23	5	9	5	2	2	3

Player

AVG

RBI

.258

.236

.278

.291

.253

.223

.236

.205

.222

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21
S. ManaeaRP	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	66
Team	5.0	4	2	2	3	3	87

Player

H. BrazobanRP

1.0

S. ManaeaRP

4.0

Team

5.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.275	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.198	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. France1B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.170	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.228	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.251	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BowenCF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Taylor2B	.333	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
F. FerminC	.140	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		17	2	4	2	1	3	3