Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

NYM

29-36

33-31

Petco Park · San Diego, California

41,159 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
58.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+31.6pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

★ best

+244DraftKings

edge +31.6pp · implied 27.3%

Book	NYM	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-342	+244★	+31.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium
Casey MizeSD
5.1± 2.4medium

Hits

Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Manny MachadoSD
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low
Sean ManaeaNYM
2.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

.684

OPS

.720

▶

.696

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.312

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 7 · SD 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	7
SD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.265	5	3	5	2	1	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.234	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.275	3	0	0	1	0	2	0
J. Young1B	.291	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
A.J. EwingCF	.259	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.226	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. Baty3B	.235	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. MelendezDH	.200	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. TorrensC	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		38	7	13	7	3	4	7

Player

.265

.234

.275

.291

.259

.226

.235

.200

.218

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21
S. ManaeaRP	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	66
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
A.J. MinterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
L. WeaverRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	20
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	7	152

Player

1.0

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.273	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.202	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. France1B	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Machado3B	.169	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.255	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BowenRF	.083	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
F. FerminC	.147	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	1	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	4.0	8	4	4	2	3	75
Y. MatsuiRP	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	25
R. MarinaccioRP	2.1	1	1	1	1	3	36
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	27
Team	9.0	13	7	7	4	7	163

Team

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.