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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9LAD
COL

COL

20-36

6
15
LAD

LAD

35-20

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,148 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

67.9%

open 68.0%

+0.5-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL72.0%63.5%LAD NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

COL 6 · LAD 15 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +30pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0100000056
LAD2024250015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

55%Last 7 · 53-43
60%Last 30 · 307-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.1pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

COL

no live price

LAD

★ best
-244DraftKings

edge +15.1pp · implied 67.8%

BookCOLLADBest edge
DraftKings+197-244★+15.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 90
    273
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 88
    271
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 85
    2714
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 5, 26sim 76
    30
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 75
    16
    30(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 74
    272
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.10

CLV pp

Open price

-246

Close price

-245

Open no-vig

68.0%

Close no-vig

67.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -244

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Colorado Rockies, 15–6. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 12.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. FreelandCOL−27.2pp
  2. 2T. HernándezLAD+17.4pp
  3. 3E. HernándezLAD+17.4pp

COL · top performer

COL
Brett Sullivan

Brett Sullivan

C

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Enrique Hernandez

Enrique Hernandez

1B

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
W. Castro★2B
2-330200003.5
SPRINT27.969
T. Freeman★RF
1-5501000115.9
E. Tovar★SS
1-550100012.3
H. Goodman★C
1-331111014.3
SPRINT27.148
B. Fulford★C
1-331100103.3
J. McCarthy★CF
2-441200012.2
SPRINT29.698
K. Karros★3B
1-441131010.2
SPRINT27.251
T. Johnston★RF
1-441100011.9
C. Stevens★2B
0-330000116.5
S. ThompsonRF
1-220110000.1
B. SullivanC
1-221111000.1
SPRINT2872
Team12-38386126327—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. Freeland★SP
4.098804327.2
Z. AgnosRP
2.06771120.6
W. HerreraRP
1.01000200.0
B. SullivanC
1.01000000.1
SPRINT2872
Team8.0171515175—
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. Ohtani★DH
0-221000000.4
A. Pages★CF
4-553431006.3
SPRINT28.175
F. Freeman★1B
2-3322101113.4
SPRINT24.74
M. Betts◆Multi-HR game★SS
3-552352018.9
K. Tucker★RF
1-551100011.9
T. Hernández★LF
1-3311000117.4
W. Smith★C
2-442221001.2
SPRINT2744
M. Rojas★SS
2-551210012.2
SPRINT26.123
E. Hernández★1B
2-2222110017.4
D. RushingC
0-220000010.0
A. CallLF
0-220000000.0
H. KimSS
0-110010010.0
Team17-3939151714517—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. Lauer★SP
6.04111412.6
M. Rojas★SS
1.08550022.2
SPRINT26.123
J. HernándezRP
2.000013017.4
Team9.01266273—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

17

6

Runs

15

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15today
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4

Season series

LAD lead series 4-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3
May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15today
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4
Jul 7COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 8COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 9COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 18LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 19LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 20LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+19734%
LADLAD-24471%

↗1· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

COLCOL
B. Sullivan

B. Sullivan

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 9 H

LADLAD
E. Hernández

E. Hernández

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat COL 15-6.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 86% WP

Betts · homered to center (404 feet), Freeman scored.

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+14pp→ 89% WP

E. Hern · ández homered to left (371 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0100000056
LAD20242500—15

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

15

12

Hits

17

0

Errors

1

22

TB

36

3

HR

5

2

BB

1

7

K

7

14

LOB

9

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·COL +197/LAD -244

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

LAD vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

COL won 1 · LAD won 5

0
2

Inn 1

Betts 2

1
0

Inn 2

Goodman 1

0
2

Inn 3

Hern 1

0
4

Inn 4

Pages 3

0
2

Inn 5

Rojas 1

0
5

Inn 6

Betts 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

5

Inn 9

Karros 3

COL
LAD

Play-by-play · 607 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  2. T9

    Sullivan flied out to right.

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  5. T9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Brett Sullivan

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  6. T9

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  7. T9

    Tovar singled to center, Freeman to second, S. Thompson to third.

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  10. T9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  11. T9

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  12. T9

    Freeman singled to right, S. Thompson to second.

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  18. T9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Tyler Freeman

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  19. T9

    ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  20. T9

    S. Thompson singled to left, Johnston scored.

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  23. T9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Sterlin Thompson

    · ·

    COL 6·LAD 15

  24. T9

    · ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  25. T9

    Stevens grounded out to third, Johnston to third.

    · ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  27. T9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Chad Stevens

    · ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  28. T9

    ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  29. T9

    Johnston doubled to center.

    ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 5·LAD 15

Player projections

LAD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.6± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.0± 2.3low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.2± 0.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.9± 0.7high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    4.0± 3.1low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

84.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    79.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    82.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    80.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872