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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11PIT
CHC

CHC

29-26

1
12
PIT

PIT

29-26

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
13,950 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%50.1%PIT NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CHC 1 · PIT 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0100000001
PIT5000311212

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+41.6pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best
+800DraftKings

edge +41.6pp · implied 10.4%

PIT

no live price

BookCHCPITBest edge
DraftKings+800★-2000+41.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 99
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 98
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 98
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 98
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 97
    96
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    1610
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -137

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Chicago Cubs, 12–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC29-26
1
12
PIT29-26
CHC29-26·PIT29-26
CHC

CHC

29-26

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-55010001
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010011
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000000
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-44000002
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000012
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
0-11000001
Team8-3535181029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WicksJ. Wicks★RP
4.1988151
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
1.2210110
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0111011
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0322010
Team8.0151211282
PIT

PIT

29-26

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-44210011
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44220001
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-44222000
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-55221001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
3-33131000
SPRINT28.483
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-55011002
E. ValdezE. Valdez★OF
1-44113112
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-33122100
SPRINT24.85
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000001
J. TrioloJ. Triolo3B
1-11110000
J. GarciaJ. GarciaRF
0-11000000
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11001000
Team15-3939121511228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
6.1711150
B. BidoisB. BidoisRP
1.2000030
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100110
Team9.0811290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Wicks
    80 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.0 mph·26% whiff
    • CH
      31%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Rolison
    32 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·87.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·101.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      7%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·100.8 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    95 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      42%·91.9 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      28%·97.6 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      14%·85.5 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      7%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Bidois
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      48%·85.8 mph·43% whiff
  • D. Santana
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      56%·85.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

15

1

Runs

12

1

Errors

3

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12today
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 4-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12today
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+11447%
PITPIT-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Wicks

J. Wicks

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 8 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CHC 12-1.

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 85% WP

Reynolds · doubled to left, Griffin scored and Lowe scored.

PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+7pp→ 93% WP

Valdez · homered to center (415 feet), Cruz scored.

PITTop 4th Inning · 1-5
+7pp→ 92% WP

Happ · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Bregman out at second, Busch to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0100000001
PIT50003112—12

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · PIT won 5

0
5

Inn 1

Reynolds 2

1
0

Inn 2

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Gonzales 1

0
1

Inn 6

Griffin 1

0
1

Inn 7

Horwitz 1

0
2

Inn 8

Mangum 1

0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  2. T9

    Busch flied out to center.

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  6. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  7. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  8. T9

    Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Swanson to second, Kelly out at third.

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  12. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  13. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  14. T9

    Alcántara struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  21. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Kevin Alcantara

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  22. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  23. T9

    Swanson walked, Kelly to second.

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  28. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Dansby Swanson

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  29. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

  30. T9

    Kelly singled to left.

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 12

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

12

8

Hits

15

1

Errors

3

10

TB

24

0

HR

2

2

BB

2

9

K

8

27

LOB

17

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·CHC +114/PIT -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    50.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483