Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at PIT?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — May 26, 2026

FINAL+11PIT

CHC

29-26

112

PIT

29-26

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

13,950 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
50.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.5%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at PIT?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

+114DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 44.7%

PIT

no live price

Book	CHC	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+114★	-137	+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

PIT

.756

OPS

◀

.720

.748

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.334

5.15

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.08

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.30

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CHC 1 · PIT 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
PIT	5	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.224	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.252	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Busch1B	.231	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. Bregman3B	.259	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.212	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosC	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KellyC	.300	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.183	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. AlcantaraDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	8	1	0	2	9

Player

.224

.252

.231

.259

.212

.235

.240

.300

.183

.000

.286

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WicksRP	4.1	9	8	8	1	5	80
R. RolisonRP	1.2	2	1	0	1	1	32
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
H. MilnerRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	20
Team	8.0	15	12	11	2	8	146

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.261	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.270	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.256	4	2	2	2	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.304	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
O. CruzCF	.265	3	1	3	1	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.185	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.167	4	1	1	3	1	1	2
S. Horwitz1B	.289	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
H. DavisC	.139	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.246	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumCF	.250	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		39	12	15	11	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	6.1	7	1	1	1	5	95
B. BidoisRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	25
D. SantanaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	8	1	1	2	9	138

Team

CHC

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.