MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TEX

HOU

24-32

710

TEX

25-29

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

28,778 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 9.0 · -1.0

TEX no-vig %

55.3%

open 57.2% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.86

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+123

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+109DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 45.7%

TEX

no live price

Book	HOU	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+109★	-132	+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.6high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.7± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

TEX

.730

OPS

◀

.717

.699

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.48

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.95

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.81

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

HOU 7 · TEX 10 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	7
TEX	8	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.247	4	2	1	1	1	1	0
I. Paredes3B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.303	5	2	2	4	2	0	2
C. Walker1B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.344	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.213	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.281	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.207	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. SalazarC	.063	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. MeyersCF	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. DezenzoLF	.220	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.302	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	7	8	7	4	3	7

Player

.247

.240

.303

.260

.344

.213

.281

.207

.063

.207

.220

.302

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AlexanderRP	6.0	6	9	9	2	4	100
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	0	23
Team	8.0	9	10	10	2	4	123

Player

J. AlexanderRP

6.0

100

A. BlubaughRP

2.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.234	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.279	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. NimmoRF	.267	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.303	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Burger1B	.240	4	2	1	2	0	0	1
E. CarterCF	.178	4	2	3	3	1	0	0
E. Duran2B	.283	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.205	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	10	9	10	2	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	6.0	4	4	4	3	4	95
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
J. BeeksRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	15
J. LatzRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	14
Team	9.0	8	7	7	3	7	134

Team

HOU

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.