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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATL
ATL

ATL

37-18

7
6
BOS

BOS

22-31

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
34,126 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

BOS no-vig %

49.0%

open 48.9% · +0.1

+2.0-0.5BOS SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL53.0%44.9%BOS NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 7 · BOS 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000230207
BOS2000011026

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+40.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
+348DraftKings

edge +40.4pp · implied 21.0%

BOS

no live price

BookATLBOSBest edge
DraftKings+348★-529+40.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    39.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.3%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 97
    302
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 97
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    307
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 95
    308
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    198
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.10

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -112

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

BOS +1.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL37-18
7
6
BOS22-31
ATL37-18·BOS22-31
ATL

ATL

37-18

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-55011002
SPRINT26.838
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44110011
SPRINT26.428
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-55000001
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-33110012
SPRINT27.765
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-22100010
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
4-44243100
SPRINT27.148
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000002
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-22000000
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
1-11110000
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11001000
C. TrompC. TrompC
0-11000001
Team9-36367972310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
5.0333352
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
0.2100100
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.1111011
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0422010
Team9.0966483
BOS

BOS

22-31

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55121101
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-55111101
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44100011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.838
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33000011
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-33110011
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44110001
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-33123110
SPRINT27.560
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-22000001
Team9-3535695348
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
5.0655341
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100010
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000010
T. GuerreroT. GuerreroRP
2.0222041
Team9.09773102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    87 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      52%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      33%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      22%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·98.5 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    91 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.0 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      27%·91.3 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      5%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·79.2 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Guerrero
    36 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      69%·100.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      19%·93.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      27%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      27%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      18%·78.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6today
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Season series

ATL leads series 3-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6today
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATLATL-10752%
BOSBOS-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 5th Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

BOSBOS
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 7-6. Olson's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 45% WP

Olson · homered to right (428 feet), Dubón scored.

ATLTop 8th Inning · 7-4
+15pp→ 93% WP

Harris II · homered to center (423 feet), Yastrzemski scored.

ATLBottom 9th Inning · 7-6
+19pp→ 100% WP

Abreu · grounded out to pitcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000230207
BOS2000011026

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · BOS won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Duran 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Olson 2

3
1

Inn 6

II 1

Gasper 1

0
1

Inn 7

Kiner-Falefa 1

2
0

Inn 8

II 2

0
2

Inn 9

Kiner-Falefa 2

ATL
BOS

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  3. B9

    Abreu grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  8. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  9. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  10. B9

    Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Duran to second, Kiner-Falefa out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

    −13pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  15. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  16. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  17. B9

    Duran singled to right, Kiner-Falefa to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

    +12pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  22. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  23. B9

    ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  24. B9

    Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Gasper scored and Sogard scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

    +10pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  26. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 6

  27. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 4

  28. B9

    Monasterio struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 4

    −9pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 7·BOS 4

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

7

Runs

6

9

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

18

TB

19

2

HR

3

3

BB

4

10

K

8

10

LOB

17

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -107/BOS -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872