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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5BAL
TB

TB

34-18

1
6
BAL

BAL

25-30

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
11,878 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

BAL no-vig %

49.1%

open 48.9% · +0.2

+2.0-0.5BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL53.7%44.9%BAL NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 1 · BAL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB1000000001
BAL030030006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.4pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TB

★ best
+309DraftKings

edge +38.4pp · implied 23.0%

BAL

no live price

BookTBBALBest edge
DraftKings+309★-450+38.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasTB -114

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–1.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Ryan Vilade

Ryan Vilade

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB34-18
1
6
BAL25-30
TB34-18·BAL25-30
TB

TB

34-18

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
3-44031001
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.716
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33000001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000001
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
1-33010011
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-44000002
O. DunnO. Dunn★3B
0-44000001
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
1-11010000
SPRINT28.483
Team9-34341910210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JaxG. Jax★RP
2.0431030
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
2.0000030
T. MartinT. MartinRP
3.0330211
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0100020
Team8.0861291
BAL

BAL

25-30

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33001002
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44100000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000011
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44213101
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT2993
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.530
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33010012
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT28.175
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-33121000
Team8-3232686129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
7.0711290
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0200000
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.09112100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • T. Martin
    52 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      19%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    38 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      32%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      24%·88.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      26%·96.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      7%·85.8 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • S. Baz
    99 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      37%·84.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.8 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

2

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6today
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11

Season series

TB leads series 3-2

May 18BALBAL6@TBTB16
May 19BALBAL1@TBTB4
May 20BALBAL3@TBTB5
May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6today
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11
Aug 14BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 15BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 16BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 17BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 21TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 22TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 23TBTB@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

TBTB-11453%
BALBAL-10551%

↘1· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TBTB
R. Vilade

R. Vilade

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Cleavinger

G. Cleavinger

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TB 6-1.

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 66% WP

Aranda · singled to right, Simpson scored.

BALBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 71% WP

Holliday · singled to left, Taveras scored, Alexander to second, Jackson to third.

BALBottom 5th Inning · 1-6
+15pp→ 96% WP

Basallo · homered to right center (405 feet), Holliday scored and Henderson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB1000000001
BAL03003000—6

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BAL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Aranda 1

0
3

Inn 2

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Basallo 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  2. T9

    Dunn grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  4. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Oliver Dunn

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  5. T9

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  6. T9

    Feduccia flied out to left.

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  11. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  12. T9

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  13. T9

    Mesa Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  19. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Victor Mesa Jr.

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  20. T9

    Kittredge relieved Wolfram

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 1·BAL 6

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 1·BAL 6

  23. B8

    · ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  24. B8

    Alexander grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  26. B8

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  27. B8

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  28. B8

    Cowser reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 1·BAL 6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

1

Runs

6

9

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

10

TB

11

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

10

K

9

16

LOB

13

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB -114/BAL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    39.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 98
    105
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 97
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    103
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 96
    100
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    104
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs