Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BAL?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — May 26, 2026

FINAL+5BAL

34-18

BAL

25-30

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

11,878 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

BAL no-vig %

49.1%

open 48.9% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
39.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.1%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BAL?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-114DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 51.0%

BAL

no live price

Book	TB	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-114★	-105	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Trevor RogersBAL
5.3± 1.9high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.1high
Liam HicksTB
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.3± 2.7high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.3high
Coby MayoBAL
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.8± 1.8low
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.710

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.319

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

4.49

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 1 · BAL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BAL	0	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.296	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.266	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Aranda1B	.278	4	0	3	1	0	0	1
Y. DiazDH	.312	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Palacios2B	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
H. FeducciaC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Dunn3B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.318	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	9	1	0	2	10

Player

.296

.266

.278

.312

.260

.189

.250

.250

.000

.318

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JaxSP	2.0	4	3	1	0	3	38
G. CleavingerRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	27
T. MartinRP	3.0	3	3	0	2	1	52
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
Team	8.0	8	6	1	2	9	132

Player

2.0

2.0

3.0

1.0

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.250	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
G. HendersonSS	.217	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.232	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. BasalloC	.267	4	2	1	3	1	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.271	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.255	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.204	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
B. Alexander3B	.246	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.222	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team		32	6	8	6	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	7.0	7	1	1	2	9	99
G. WolframRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	8
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	9	1	1	2	10	117

Team

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.