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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAA
LAA

LAA

21-34

10
6
DET

DET

21-34

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
21,954 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

+0.5-2.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 56.2%May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 10 · DET 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA00220005110
DET0101310006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 64-39
61%Last 30 · 312-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

LAA

no live price

DET

no live price

BookLAADETBest edge
DraftKings+114-137+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1/VegasDET -137

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 10–6.

LAA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1L. O'HoppeLAA+100.9pp
  2. 2Z. NetoLAA+100.1pp
  3. 3V. GrissomLAA+74.3pp

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jose Siri

Jose Siri

LF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA21-34
10
6
DET21-34
LAA21-34·DET21-34
LAA

LAA

21-34

10
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
3-44231010100.1
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-4410001255.5
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
3-5513610074.3
SPRINT26.632
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-5501000116.4
W. MecklerW. Meckler★LF
2-440200008.3
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-551111035.6
SPRINT27.867
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-441100031.9
D. WaltonD. Walton★3B
1-551100021.2
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
2-44221000100.9
SPRINT27.251
J. SiriJ. SiriLF
1-111111002.4
Team15-41411015103211—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
4.065524048.1
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
1.22113319.4
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.10000301.5
SPRINT27.148
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.00000105.4
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.00001101.7
Team9.08666121—
DET

DET

21-34

6
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
3-4413201028.6
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-3300002212.5
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-330000228.6
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-2222000017.5
SPRINT28.381
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-440000042.8
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-220020011.3
SPRINT26.941
G. WorkmanG. Workman★3B
0-220000006.1
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-4411000136.9
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-3321111044.3
SPRINT27.969
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-330110016.6
SPRINT28.278
H. LeeH. Lee2B
0-220000010.5
Team8-32326861612—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
5.284417135.0
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
0.22000008.5
W. VestW. VestRP
1.145511172.1
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.11110311.7
Team9.01510102113—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Kochanowicz
    66 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      36%·88.7 mph·41% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.0 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Farris
    43 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      35%·78.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Yates
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      75%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      80%·88.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      33%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    89 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.0 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.0 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      17%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.3 mph·40% whiff
  • W. Vest
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      32%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      83%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

8

10

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6today
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6today
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1
Jul 18DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+11447%
DETDET-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 63pp · Top 8th Inning

LAALAA
J. Siri

J. Siri

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat DET 10-6. Grissom's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (63pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 51% WP

Grissom · singled to center, O'Hoppe scored and Neto scored, Grissom to second.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 77% WP

McGonigle · tripled to right, Vierling scored and Pérez scored.

LAATop 8th Inning · 9-6
+63pp→ 91% WP

Grissom · homered to right center (384 feet), O'Hoppe scored, Neto scored and Trout scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA00220005110
DET0101310006

Period scoring

LAA won 4 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

McKinstry 1

2
0

Inn 3

Grissom 2

2
1

Inn 4

Adell 1

McKinstry 1

0
3

Inn 5

McGonigle 2

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

5
0

Inn 8

Grissom 4

1
0

Inn 9

Siri 1

LAA
DET

Play-by-play · 625 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 10·DET 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  3. B9

    Torkelson struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  8. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  9. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  10. B9

    Jones flied out to right.

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  13. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Jahmai Jones

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  14. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  15. B9

    Greene flied out to left.

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

    −3pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  21. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  22. B9

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  23. B9

    Dingler walked.

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

    +3pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  29. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Dillon Dingler

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

  30. B9

    Yates relieved Silseth

    ·

    LAA 10·DET 6

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

10

Runs

6

15

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

27

TB

15

3

HR

1

2

BB

6

11

K

12

19

LOB

21

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 9·LAA +114/DET -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

DET vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.5± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.0± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.8± 2.8low

RBIs

  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 2.0low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.9± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    5.0± 4.3low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.2± 2.5low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 27, 26sim 89
    37
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 89
    92
    20(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 89
    2014
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 88
    37
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 87
    911
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 86
    30
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs