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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SEA
SEA

SEA

27-29

4
1
ATH

ATH

27-28

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
9,539 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

49.0%

open 50.0% · -1.0

+2.0-0.5ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL54.0%44.9%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 46.7%May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 4 · ATH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0301000004
ATH0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.1pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

ATH

★ best
+544DraftKings

edge +32.1pp · implied 14.6%

BookSEAATHBest edge
DraftKings-1000+544★+32.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0/VegasATH -112

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Athletics and beat them, 4–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Victor Robles

Victor Robles

RF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA27-29
4
1
ATH27-28
SEA27-29·ATH27-28
SEA

SEA

27-29

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44011002
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-55011000
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55010002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT23.81
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-22110001
M. GarverM. Garver★C
2-44121000
SPRINT24.53
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33001001
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
3-33130000
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-33000011
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
Team11-34344114018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP
6.0100230
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0100000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0211011
Team9.0411251
ATH

ATH

27-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-22000010
SPRINT25.716
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-33000000
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000011
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-44121100
SPRINT26.735
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000000
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.891
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-44000000
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-33000000
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-11000000
A. WilliamsA. Williams2B
0-11000001
Team4-3131141125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JumpG. Jump★RP
5.0944150
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
1.2200010
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.1000010
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000010
Team9.01144180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • J. Suarez
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1today
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1

Season series

SEA leads series 3-2

Apr 21ATHATH6@SEASEA4
Apr 22ATHATH5@SEASEA2
Apr 22ATHATH4@SEASEA5
May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1today
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1
Sep 4ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 5ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 12SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEASEA-10852%
ATHATH-11253%

↗5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 2nd Inning

SEASEA
V. Robles

V. Robles

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Jump

G. Jump

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 77% WP

Athletics · challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was overturned: Mitch Garver hits a ground-rule double (2) on a ground ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores. Rob Refsnyder to 3rd.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0301000004
ATH0000000011

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Athletics 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Soderstrom 1

SEA
ATH

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  3. B9

    Butler grounded out to first.

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  10. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  11. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  12. B9

    Gelof reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

    +0.8pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  16. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Zack Gelof

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  17. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  18. B9

    Williams struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

    −1pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  22. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Alika Williams

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  23. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  24. B9

    Soderstrom homered to center (409 feet).

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

    +0.9pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 0

  30. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    ·

    SEA 4·ATH 1

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

4

Runs

1

11

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

13

TB

7

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

5

11

LOB

13

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 9.5·SEA -108/ATH -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Win probability

ATH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.6%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 97
    161
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    94
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    293
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    129
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586