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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7TOR
MIA

MIA

26-30

1
8
TOR

TOR

26-29

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,815 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%TOR NO-VIG %May 26, 12 AMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIA 1 · TOR 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000100001
TOR011006008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.9pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best
+238DraftKings

edge +21.9pp · implied 27.7%

TOR

no live price

BookMIATORBest edge
DraftKings+238★-340+21.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -123

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Miami Marlins, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Javier Sanoja

Javier Sanoja

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA26-30
1
8
TOR26-29
MIA26-30·TOR26-29
MIA

MIA

26-30

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-33000001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000000
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000011
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000011
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT27.765
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT28.483
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-33000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-33020000
SPRINT28.381
G. PauleyG. Pauley3B
0-11000000
Team5-3131151035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
5.21088143
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
2.1200020
Team8.01288163
TOR

TOR

26-29

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-44131000
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44220011
SPRINT26.838
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-44124102
SPRINT25.818
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44011002
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT2622
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000000
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
2-44120000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33100000
Team12-35358128316
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FisherB. Fisher★RP
1.0100010
S. MilesS. MilesRP
4.1311130
A. MackoA. MackoRP
0.2000000
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000000
T. AndrewsT. AndrewsRP
2.0100210
Team9.0511350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      26%·97.6 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    35 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      31%·80.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • S. Miles
    66 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.3 mph·12% whiff
    • CU
      29%·80.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Andrews
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FS
      43%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      50%·79.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      36%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Macko
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      11%·80.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

1

Runs

8

0

Errors

2

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8today
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8today
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+10250%
TORTOR-12355%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 5th Inning

MIAMIA
J. Sanoja

J. Sanoja

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Miles

S. Miles

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIA 8-1.

Win probability

TOR vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 73% WP

Clement · homered to left center (373 feet).

MIATop 5th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 35% WP

Hern · ández reached on infield single to shortstop, Marsee scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 86% WP

Pinango · homered to center (408 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000100001
TOR01100600—8

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · TOR won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Clement 1

0
1

Inn 3

Okamoto 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Hern 1

0
6

Inn 6

Pinango 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
TOR

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  2. T9

    Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  6. T9

    Tanner Andrews pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  7. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  8. T9BB

    Jakob Marsee challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Jakob Marsee walks. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  14. T9

    Tanner Andrews pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  15. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  16. T9

    Norby flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  18. T9

    Tanner Andrews pitches to Connor Norby

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  19. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  20. T9

    Stowers walked.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  27. T9

    Tanner Andrews pitches to Kyle Stowers

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  28. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  29. T9

    Lopez flied out to left.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

8

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

2

5

TB

22

0

HR

3

3

BB

1

5

K

6

14

LOB

16

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +102/TOR -123

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 99
    288
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 99
    167
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 98
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 96
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    116
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs